TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094681
Played Sep 8Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161151311––––
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 57 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 54.9%
57 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 22–17 Evhenii Hrytsenko Evhenii Hrytsenko has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-17 in 39
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1753 vs Hrytsenko 1738
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 80% vs Hrytsenko 100%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 70% vs Hrytsenko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Hrytsenko +5
Hrytsenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.73 / Hrytsenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevianko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094681
Derevianko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 80 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it84% 53 of 63
Hrytsenko2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 85 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back16% 9 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayHrytsenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko25%1 of 4
AwayHrytsenko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko4Hrytsenko6n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S2Derevianko5Hrytsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevianko5Hrytsenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Derevianko4Hrytsenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Derevianko1Hrytsenko2n = 3Hrytsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoHrytsenkoD − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.938.4−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime467 / 978 vs 325 / 65347.8%49.8%467 / 978 vs 325 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.73/Hrytsenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 16:30A. Derevianko—1112611122E. Hrytsenko—5101113143
WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko—71111113E. Hrytsenko—116481
LSep 3 · 14:30A. Derevianko—1011991E. Hrytsenko—12211113
WAug 31 · 14:30A. Derevianko—51411113E. Hrytsenko—1112761
LAug 28 · 10:50A. Derevianko—115721E. Hrytsenko—61111113
LAug 25 · 06:50A. Derevianko—85111172E. Hrytsenko—111176113
WAug 24 · 16:30A. Derevianko—961111123E. Hrytsenko—111198102
LAug 21 · 12:20A. Derevianko—10770E. Hrytsenko—1211113
LAug 18 · 08:50A. Derevianko—118871E. Hrytsenko—71111113
WAug 17 · 18:00A. Derevianko—1111113E. Hrytsenko—8950
A. Derevianko10
WSep 8 · 10:20A. Derevianko1.6111312113M. Mrykh2.208111041WSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162LSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 14:30V. Maksuta2.108890A. Derevianko1.671111113LSep 7 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.67711116102M. Mrykh2.10118511123WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152
E. Hrytsenko10
WSep 8 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko1.73711116113O. Zhyrnov2.0011991192WSep 8 · 09:50E. Hrytsenko1.73139711123I. Nitchenko2.001111111102WSep 8 · 08:20E. Hrytsenko2.501111113M. Mrykh1.506790WSep 8 · 06:20E. Hrytsenko2.63611311113O. Strutinskiy1.4411411772WSep 7 · 18:00E. Hrytsenko1.80128712113V. Maksuta1.911011111082WSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122WSep 7 · 15:00E. Hrytsenko2.63117117113M. Mrykh1.4471181142LSep 7 · 13:30E. Hrytsenko2.63111080O. Strutinskiy1.441312113LSep 7 · 12:00E. Hrytsenko3.25117321V. Savoliuk1.3361111113WSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131
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