TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090999
Played Sep 8Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.06
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1513111113––––
Kento Waltl
Away
8.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Kento Waltl below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 54 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Marius Henninger at 65.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–0 Kento Waltl Kento Waltl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1676 vs Waltl 1112
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 564 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 80% vs Waltl 0%
Henninger
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 80% vs Waltl 10%
Henninger
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger -1 · Waltl -5
Waltl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Henninger) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Waltl form (0%) is below what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.06 / Waltl 8.00
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Henninger)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090999
Henninger1.06
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Waltl8.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHenninger1wins
AwayWaltl0wins
Henninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHenningerWaltlH − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match37.017.0+20.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerWaltlBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 103 vs 3 / 1454.4%21.4%56 / 103 vs 3 / 14Avg sets wonper match2.01.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.430.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.06/Waltl 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 8 · 07:30M. Henninger—1511113K. Waltl—13130
M. Henninger10
LSep 7 · 16:30M. Henninger2.0061250K. Fadeev1.731114113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171WSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431
K. Waltl10
LSep 7 · 17:30K. Waltl1.40116651C. Schmitt2.7571111113LSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470LSep 7 · 14:00M. Stefanidis1.3511111113K. Waltl2.90761141LSep 7 · 12:00K. Waltl—91080S. Almeida—1112113LSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113LAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 08:45M. Danzer1.061111113K. Waltl8.003530WAug 11 · 07:00K. Waltl1.171112113M. Ozdemir4.5061050LAug 10 · 12:30M. Stefanidis—1111117113K. Waltl—56131192
Upcoming Matches
M. Henninger
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