TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090016
Played Sep 7Finished
Kento Waltl
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611611511––
Cosmo Schmitt
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeKento Waltl to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKento Waltl above · Cosmo Schmitt below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Kento Waltl at 66.3%
68 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Waltl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Waltl 1185 vs Schmitt 1176
Waltl
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Waltl 0% vs Schmitt 20%
Schmitt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Waltl 10% vs Schmitt 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Waltl -5 · Schmitt -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Waltl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmitt form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWaltl 1.40 / Schmitt 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Waltl)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090016
Waltl1.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Schmitt2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWaltlSchmittBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 12 vs 8 / 5525%14.6%3 / 12 vs 8 / 55Avg sets wonper match1.31.1per matchAvg pointsper match31.430.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WaltlWaltl 1.40/Schmitt 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Waltl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schmitt won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Waltl10
LSep 7 · 16:00R. Turrini1.041111113K. Waltl9.006470LSep 7 · 14:00M. Stefanidis1.3511111113K. Waltl2.90761141LSep 7 · 12:00K. Waltl—91080S. Almeida—1112113LSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113LAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 08:45M. Danzer1.061111113K. Waltl8.003530WAug 11 · 07:00K. Waltl1.171112113M. Ozdemir4.5061050LAug 10 · 12:30M. Stefanidis—1111117113K. Waltl—56131192LAug 10 · 11:30M. Danzer1.081117113K. Waltl7.0051510
C. Schmitt10
LSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171LSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760LSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111081172C. Schmitt—912103113LJul 7 · 07:30D. Rinderer1.06111011113C. Schmitt8.00712561LJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113LJul 6 · 16:00L. Kraus1.2015119113C. Schmitt4.331391171WJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 12:00C. Schmitt10.501860K. Fadeev1.021111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Waltl
C. Schmitt1 of 1 neutral
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