TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090001
Played Sep 7Finished
Vincent Senkbeil
Home
1.08
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111210113115––
Cosmo Schmitt
Away
7.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 86.6% is still 86.6%
Graded at full timeVincent Senkbeil to win
86.6%
86.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVincent Senkbeil above · Cosmo Schmitt below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Vincent Senkbeil at 86.6%
69 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.08 (87%)
Senkbeil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Senkbeil 1605 vs Schmitt 1186
Senkbeil
Correct
both rated, 420 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senkbeil 60% vs Schmitt 20%
Senkbeil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senkbeil 70% vs Schmitt 20%
Senkbeil
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Senkbeil -1 · Schmitt -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Senkbeil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senkbeil form (60%) is below what odds imply (92%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenkbeil 1.08 / Schmitt 7.00
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Senkbeil)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090001
Senkbeil1.08
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Schmitt7.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenkbeilSchmittBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 37 vs 8 / 5351.4%15.1%19 / 37 vs 8 / 53Avg sets wonper match2.01.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.130.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SenkbeilSenkbeil 1.08/Schmitt 7.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.6%
Senkbeil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Senkbeil won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Senkbeil10
LSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891WMar 6 · 11:28O. Naplokov—4990V. Senkbeil—1111113WMar 6 · 09:00M. Hardikar3.757780V. Senkbeil1.251111113WMar 6 · 08:00V. Senkbeil1.611112123L. Kraus2.20710100WMar 5 · 16:30D. Zech4.507101331V. Senkbeil1.17111211113WMar 5 · 14:30O. Naplokov2.38311741V. Senkbeil1.5311711113LMar 5 · 13:00R. Turrini1.13111310113V. Senkbeil5.509111221WMar 5 · 10:00M. Henninger1.534770V. Senkbeil2.381111113
C. Schmitt10
LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760LSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111081172C. Schmitt—912103113LJul 7 · 07:30D. Rinderer1.06111011113C. Schmitt8.00712561LJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113LJul 6 · 16:00L. Kraus1.2015119113C. Schmitt4.331391171WJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 12:00C. Schmitt10.501860K. Fadeev1.021111113LJul 6 · 09:30C. Schmitt10.5011196872E. Mendes1.028171111113LJul 6 · 08:00C. Schmitt4.33115791S. Happek1.2061111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.