TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090013
Played Sep 7Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118114119––––
Vincent Senkbeil
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Vincent Senkbeil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 66.6%
54 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:12What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1695 vs Senkbeil 1623
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 60% vs Senkbeil 80%
Senkbeil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 70% vs Senkbeil 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev +3 · Senkbeil +1
Fadeev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senkbeil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 1.36 / Senkbeil 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090013
Fadeev1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Senkbeil3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevSenkbeilBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 146 vs 19 / 3766.4%51.4%97 / 146 vs 19 / 37Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevFadeev 1.36/Senkbeil 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fadeev won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121
V. Senkbeil10
WSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891WMar 6 · 11:28O. Naplokov—4990V. Senkbeil—1111113WMar 6 · 09:00M. Hardikar3.757780V. Senkbeil1.251111113WMar 6 · 08:00V. Senkbeil1.611112123L. Kraus2.20710100WMar 5 · 16:30D. Zech4.507101331V. Senkbeil1.17111211113WMar 5 · 14:30O. Naplokov2.38311741V. Senkbeil1.5311711113LMar 5 · 13:00R. Turrini1.13111310113V. Senkbeil5.509111221WMar 5 · 10:00M. Henninger1.534770V. Senkbeil2.381111113LMar 5 · 08:00M. Danzer1.2081211113V. Senkbeil4.331110881
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