TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090012
Played Sep 7Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
1.05
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117115611117––
Cosmo Schmitt
Away
8.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 89.0% is still 89.0%
Graded at full timeMarius Henninger to win
89.0%
89.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Cosmo Schmitt below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-4
Point 60 set 4, 5-4 — our read held Marius Henninger at 89.0%
60 points drawn · the score is 9 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Marius Henninger 1–0 Cosmo Schmitt Cosmo Schmitt has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.05 (89%)
Henninger
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1688 vs Schmitt 1179
Henninger
Correct
both rated, 509 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 80% vs Schmitt 20%
Henninger
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 90% vs Schmitt 20%
Henninger
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +4 · Schmitt -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Henninger)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (80%) is below what odds imply (95%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 1.05 / Schmitt 8.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Henninger)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090012
Henninger1.05
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Schmitt8.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHenninger1wins
AwaySchmitt0wins
Henninger leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHenningerSchmittH − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.027.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerSchmittBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 101 vs 8 / 5554.5%14.6%55 / 101 vs 8 / 55Avg sets wonper match2.01.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.430.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HenningerHenninger 1.05/Schmitt 8.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89%
Henninger · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger—1111653C. Schmitt—751141
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113
C. Schmitt10
LSep 7 · 13:00V. Senkbeil1.0861211113C. Schmitt7.001110351LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760LSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111081172C. Schmitt—912103113LJul 7 · 07:30D. Rinderer1.06111011113C. Schmitt8.00712561LJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113LJul 6 · 16:00L. Kraus1.2015119113C. Schmitt4.331391171WJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 12:00C. Schmitt10.501860K. Fadeev1.021111113LJul 6 · 09:30C. Schmitt10.5011196872E. Mendes1.028171111113
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