TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090004
Played Sep 7Finished
Rafael Turrini
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10125111513411––
Marius Henninger
Away
6.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 87.1% is still 87.1%
Graded at full timeRafael Turrini to win
87.1%
87.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafael Turrini above · Marius Henninger below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 81 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Rafael Turrini at 87.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Rafael Turrini 7–0 Marius Henninger Marius Henninger has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Turrini
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Turrini
Wrong
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Turrini 2088 vs Henninger 1661
Turrini
Wrong
both rated, 427 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Turrini 80% vs Henninger 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Turrini 90% vs Henninger 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Turrini +3 · Henninger +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Turrini)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Henninger form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTurrini 1.10 / Henninger 6.50
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Turrini)+1.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090004
Turrini1.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Henninger6.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTurrini7wins
AwayHenninger0wins
2 of 7 to a deciderTurrini leads 7–0, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTurrini100%6 of 6
AwayHenningern = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Turrini6Henninger1n = 7Turrini took 6 of 7
S2Turrini6Henninger1n = 7Turrini took 6 of 7
S3Turrini6Henninger1n = 7Turrini took 6 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home571%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricTurriniHenningerT − HBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match39.926.4+13.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTurriniHenningerBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 237 vs 53 / 9986.1%53.5%204 / 237 vs 53 / 99Avg sets wonper match2.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TurriniTurrini 1.10/Henninger 6.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
87.1%
Turrini · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Henninger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WMay 4 · 17:00R. Turrini—1112113M. Henninger—21090
WMar 6 · 08:30R. Turrini—1111113M. Henninger—5720
WJan 26 · 15:30R. Turrini—1611113M. Henninger—14670
WDec 1 · 17:30R. Turrini—1111107113M. Henninger—93121162
WJun 17 · 09:15R. Turrini—9161111113M. Henninger—11184762
WJun 17 · 07:30R. Turrini—1111113M. Henninger—8550
WJan 27 · 11:30R. Turrini—1111113M. Henninger—8820
R. Turrini10
WSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 08:30M. Stefanidis6.258180R. Turrini1.081111113WSep 7 · 07:00R. Turrini1.321111143S. Almeida2.9554120LJul 22 · 20:55R. Turrini—5970E. Otalvaro—1111113WJul 21 · 20:35R. Turrini—11911123V. Thiofilo—9112101WJun 2 · 11:00R. Turrini1.281111113D. Rinderer3.509750WJun 2 · 09:15R. Turrini1.171111123J. Shim4.5099100WJun 2 · 08:30R. Turrini1.501111113E. Mendes2.506870WJun 2 · 06:30R. Turrini1.131111113K. Zimmermann5.507840WJun 1 · 16:00R. Turrini1.3091111113D. Rinderer3.40115571
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100WAug 31 · 12:35S. Almeida—11511982M. Henninger—911411113LAug 31 · 10:30A. Limonov1.2212116113M. Henninger4.001081161
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