TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090005
Played Sep 7Finished
Marius Henninger
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111214511––––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarius Henninger above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 59 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 57.3%
59 points played in total.
H2H Marius Henninger 3–2 Kirill Fadeev Kirill Fadeev has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:12What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Henninger 1690 vs Fadeev 1723
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Henninger 100% vs Fadeev 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Henninger 90% vs Fadeev 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Henninger +5 · Fadeev +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHenninger 2.00 / Fadeev 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.3pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090005
Henninger2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Fadeev1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHenninger3wins
AwayFadeev2wins
Henninger leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHenningern = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFadeev50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Henninger1Fadeev4n = 5Fadeev took 4 of 5
S2Henninger4Fadeev1n = 5Henninger took 4 of 5
S3Henninger3Fadeev2n = 5Henninger took 3 of 5
S4Henninger2Fadeev1n = 3Henninger took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricHenningerFadeevH − FBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.833.6+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHenningerFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 101 vs 100 / 14954.5%67.1%55 / 101 vs 100 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevHenninger 2.00/Fadeev 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WMay 15 · 06:30M. Henninger—71111113K. Fadeev—118141
LApr 29 · 09:45M. Henninger—1112841K. Fadeev—131011113
WApr 28 · 09:00M. Henninger—81112143K. Fadeev—11510121
LMar 20 · 16:30M. Henninger—61050K. Fadeev—1112113
WJan 9 · 08:00M. Henninger—1111113K. Fadeev—9990
M. Henninger10
WSep 7 · 14:30M. Henninger1.0511116113C. Schmitt8.50751171WSep 7 · 12:30R. Turrini1.101051541M. Henninger6.50121113113WSep 7 · 10:30M. Stefanidis4.70119961M. Henninger1.1461111113WSep 7 · 09:00M. Henninger1.221111113S. Almeida3.703640WSep 7 · 07:30M. Henninger1.61111011113V. Senkbeil2.20412891LSep 1 · 11:20A. Limonov1.83119119113M. Henninger1.8391111182WSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Henninger1.071113113M. Gremillion7.5041130WAug 31 · 16:30M. Henninger1.0811911113S. Amann7.00511431WAug 31 · 14:30M. Henninger1.311113123M. Stefanidis3.20311100
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 15:00M. Stefanidis—761171K. Fadeev—11117113WSep 7 · 13:30K. Fadeev—15211113S. Almeida—1311481WSep 7 · 11:30K. Fadeev1.361111113V. Senkbeil3.008490WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113
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