TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089251
Played Sep 8Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171012119311411
Danylo Us
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Danylo Us below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 89 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 60.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 32–21 Danylo Us Danylo Us has won 21 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polysynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-21 in 53
Polysynskyi
Wrong
gap of 11 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1433 vs Us 1441
Us
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 60% vs Us 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 50% vs Us 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -1 · Us +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Polysynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Us form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.57 / Us 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Polysynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13089251
Polysynskyi1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 83 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it72% 61 of 85
Us2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi6wins
AwayUs4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPolysynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayUs50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi6Us4n = 10Polysynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Polysynskyi5Us5n = 10split evenly
S3Polysynskyi8Us2n = 10Polysynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Polysynskyi2Us4n = 6Us took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiUsP − UBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.2+0.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiUsBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 692 vs 201 / 47851.7%42.1%358 / 692 vs 201 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.57/Us 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Us won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi—111011342D. Us—712911113
WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi—1111133D. Us—79110
WJun 29 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi—1771112123D. Us—1511614102
LJun 17 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—2101291D. Us—111210113
WMay 14 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi—1111113D. Us—6990
WMay 6 · 22:05M. Polysynskyi—61311113D. Us—1111991
WMay 5 · 16:25M. Polysynskyi—1111113D. Us—8860
WApr 29 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi—51114113D. Us—1181261
LApr 27 · 18:25M. Polysynskyi—11990D. Us—1311113
LApr 20 · 17:25M. Polysynskyi—116581D. Us—41111113
M. Polysynskyi10
LSep 7 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83811131042A. Peretiatko1.831161112113WSep 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi2.2011711113M. Fomin1.61811791LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 26 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.73991171Y. Stepanchuk2.0011119113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83761151S. Pitsyk1.8311118113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113
D. Us10
WSep 7 · 23:05D. Us2.101111133M. Fomin1.6799110LSep 7 · 22:05D. Kim1.80101311113D. Us1.911211771WSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113WSep 3 · 02:05D. Us1.571111133M. Skliar2.2568110LSep 3 · 01:05D. Us2.2510570H. Kulishov1.571211113WSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141LSep 2 · 21:35D. Us1.91115411112D. Kim1.80911117133LAug 27 · 03:35D. Us2.504411101Y. Stepanchuk1.5011117123LAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:35D. Us1.67711811113A. Peretiatko2.1011611952
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