TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13084518
Played Sep 5Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111161191210––
Jakub Michalczyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:53 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
8111161191210––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 5–3 Jakub Michalczyk Jakub Michalczyk has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Lilien
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1500 vs Michalczyk 1367
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 60% vs Michalczyk 40%
Lilien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 70% vs Michalczyk 40%
Lilien
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +1 · Michalczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.60 / Michalczyk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Lilien)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13084518
Lilien1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 249 of 417
Up 2–0, closes it96% 128 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 189 of 244
Michalczyk2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeLilien5wins
AwayMichalczyk3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLilien leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLilien83.3%5 of 6
AwayMichalczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien6Michalczyk2n = 8Lilien took 6 of 8
S2Lilien6Michalczyk2n = 8Lilien took 6 of 8
S3Lilien5Michalczyk3n = 8Lilien took 5 of 8
S4Lilien3Michalczyk2n = 5Lilien took 3 of 5
S5Lilien1Michalczyk3n = 4Michalczyk took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricLilienMichalczykL − MBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match43.037.8+5.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienMichalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime827 / 1529 vs 177 / 33854.1%52.4%827 / 1529 vs 177 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.60/Michalczyk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 5 · 16:55A. Lilien—111110113J. Michalczyk—961261
WAug 16 · 15:50A. Lilien—1111711123J. Michalczyk—613116102
WJul 19 · 16:35A. Lilien—1111113J. Michalczyk—4970
LJun 1 · 09:25A. Lilien—119118102J. Michalczyk—711911123
WJan 26 · 12:25A. Lilien—1112113J. Michalczyk—61080
LSep 21 · 19:25A. Lilien—811111062J. Michalczyk—118912113
LSep 14 · 17:00A. Lilien—711914122J. Michalczyk—1151112143
WSep 2 · 09:25A. Lilien—1111123J. Michalczyk—69100
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113
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