TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083021
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Michalczyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9116111210611––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
9116111210611––
H2H Jakub Michalczyk 3–4 Aleksander Lilien Jakub Michalczyk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalczyk 1384 vs Lilien 1512
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalczyk 60% vs Lilien 80%
Lilien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalczyk 40% vs Lilien 70%
Lilien
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalczyk +2 · Lilien +3
Lilien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalczyk 2.10 / Lilien 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Lilien)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13083021
Michalczyk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Lilien1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 249 of 417
Up 2–0, closes it96% 128 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 189 of 244
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMichalczyk3wins
AwayLilien4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderLilien leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLilien80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalczyk2Lilien5n = 7Lilien took 5 of 7
S2Michalczyk2Lilien5n = 7Lilien took 5 of 7
S3Michalczyk2Lilien5n = 7Lilien took 5 of 7
S4Michalczyk2Lilien2n = 4split evenly
S5Michalczyk3Lilien1n = 4Michalczyk took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricMichalczykLilienM − LBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.443.0−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalczykLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 334 vs 825 / 152552.7%54.1%176 / 334 vs 825 / 1525Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienMichalczyk 2.10/Lilien 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 16 · 15:50J. Michalczyk—613116102A. Lilien—1111711123
LJul 19 · 16:35J. Michalczyk—4970A. Lilien—1111113
WJun 1 · 09:25J. Michalczyk—711911123A. Lilien—119118102
LJan 26 · 12:25J. Michalczyk—61080A. Lilien—1112113
WSep 21 · 19:25J. Michalczyk—118912113A. Lilien—811111062
WSep 14 · 17:00J. Michalczyk—1151112143A. Lilien—711914122
LSep 2 · 09:25J. Michalczyk—69100A. Lilien—1111123
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
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