TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067607
Played Sep 4Finished
Volodymyr Korobko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9116111113––––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 61 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 21–23 Yaroslav Tebenko Volodymyr Korobko has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:18What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Korobko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-23 in 44
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1464 vs Tebenko 1655
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 60% vs Tebenko 80%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 50% vs Tebenko 80%
Tebenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko -1 · Tebenko +3
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 1.80 / Tebenko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067607
Korobko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 48 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it76% 38 of 50
Tebenko1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 127 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back13% 11 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobko3wins
AwayTebenko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobko66.7%2 of 3
AwayTebenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobko3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S2Korobko5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Korobko6Tebenko4n = 10Korobko took 6 of 10
S4Korobko2Tebenko6n = 8Tebenko took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobkoTebenkoK − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.8−4.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 476 vs 389 / 81245.8%47.9%218 / 476 vs 389 / 812Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoKorobko 1.80/Tebenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 01:15V. Korobko—96110Y. Tebenko—1111133
LAug 25 · 24:30V. Korobko—611771Y. Tebenko—11911113
WAug 20 · 22:45V. Korobko—12811113Y. Tebenko—1011981
LAug 10 · 22:30V. Korobko—20119892Y. Tebenko—1881111113
LAug 3 · 22:30V. Korobko—791141Y. Tebenko—11117113
LAug 1 · 21:15V. Korobko—2614101Y. Tebenko—111112123
WJul 25 · 22:45V. Korobko—111112113Y. Tebenko—1381091
LJul 20 · 22:30V. Korobko—6141091Y. Tebenko—111212113
LJul 18 · 02:15V. Korobko—921181Y. Tebenko—11119113
WJul 14 · 02:00V. Korobko—1111113Y. Tebenko—8480
V. Korobko10
LSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970LSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113LSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113WSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472WSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 02:15O. Storozhenko1.8011390V. Korobko1.911311113LSep 4 · 24:15V. Korobko4.334121131M. Potapov1.2011149113WSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110WSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181WSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 6 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.838220D. Maltsev1.831111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Tebenko2.10116611113O. Storozhenko1.6741111972LSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.501011781M. Khomenko1.5012911113LSep 4 · 18:25Y. Tebenko2.1031212672O. Storozhenko1.6711101011113WSep 4 · 16:25D. Maltsev1.831012129152Y. Tebenko1.8312101011173WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162LSep 4 · 14:25O. Budnikov2.101211133Y. Tebenko1.67108110WSep 4 · 12:55Y. Tebenko1.919111311113I. Pytsko1.8011915862
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