TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067595
Played Sep 4Finished
Volodymyr Korobko
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111214119311––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 75 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 82.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 6–14 Mykhailo Potapov Volodymyr Korobko has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Potapov
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1480 vs Potapov 1578
Potapov
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 80% vs Potapov 60%
Korobko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 60% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko +3 · Potapov -2
Korobko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Potapov) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 4.33 / Potapov 1.20
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Potapov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067595
Korobko4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 38 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Potapov1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it84% 37 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobko1wins
AwayPotapov9wins
Potapov leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPotapov100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobko1Potapov9n = 10Potapov took 9 of 10
S2Korobko1Potapov9n = 10Potapov took 9 of 10
S3Korobko1Potapov9n = 10Potapov took 9 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away880%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobkoPotapovK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match21.835.0−13.2per matchSweeps08−83–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 474 vs 190 / 40546%46.9%218 / 474 vs 190 / 405Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovKorobko 4.33/Potapov 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.7%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 01:00V. Korobko—711921M. Potapov—11811113
LAug 21 · 02:15V. Korobko—9830M. Potapov—1111113
LAug 18 · 24:30V. Korobko—83110M. Potapov—1111133
LAug 11 · 24:00V. Korobko—86100M. Potapov—1111123
LJul 23 · 22:45V. Korobko—4530M. Potapov—1111113
LMar 17 · 24:00V. Korobko—8450M. Potapov—1111113
LDec 21 · 21:00V. Korobko—8240M. Potapov—1111113
LNov 25 · 01:30V. Korobko—44110M. Potapov—1111133
LNov 18 · 02:00V. Korobko—7640M. Potapov—1111113
WNov 11 · 02:00V. Korobko—11615123M. Potapov—61113101
V. Korobko10
LSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970LSep 6 · 01:00V. Korobko2.2061060M. Khomenko1.611112113LSep 6 · 24:00V. Korobko3.252540D. Maltsev1.331111113WSep 5 · 22:30V. Korobko1.831051111113Y. Tebenko1.8312117472WSep 5 · 20:30V. Korobko1.9111511173O. Storozhenko1.807114151WSep 4 · 02:15O. Storozhenko1.8011390V. Korobko1.911311113LSep 4 · 01:15V. Korobko1.8096110Y. Tebenko1.911111133WSep 3 · 22:45V. Korobko1.831111133O. Budnikov1.8368110WSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko1.8311117113I. Fashchevskyi1.83751181WSep 1 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.573111181V. Korobko2.2511713113
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
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