TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065493
Played Sep 3Finished
Marek Bereiter
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191513119––
Jakub Simecek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Bereiter to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Bereiter above · Jakub Simecek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 88 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Marek Bereiter at 54.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Marek Bereiter 4–2 Jakub Simecek Jakub Simecek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bereiter
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Bereiter
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bereiter 1639 vs Simecek 1627
Bereiter
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bereiter 60% vs Simecek 20%
Bereiter
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bereiter 40% vs Simecek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bereiter +1 · Simecek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Bereiter)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simecek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBereiter 1.73 / Simecek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Bereiter)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065493
Bereiter1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 12 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Simecek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 40 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back33% 16 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back22% 6 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBereiter4wins
AwaySimecek2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderBereiter leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBereitern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySimecek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bereiter2Simecek4n = 6Simecek took 4 of 6
S2Bereiter4Simecek2n = 6Bereiter took 4 of 6
S3Bereiter4Simecek2n = 6Bereiter took 4 of 6
S4Bereiter1Simecek3n = 4Simecek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricBereiterSimecekB − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.536.8+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBereiterSimecekBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 52 vs 148 / 27753.9%53.4%28 / 52 vs 148 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BereiterBereiter 1.73/Simecek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Bereiter · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bereiter won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 23 · 17:29M. Bereiter—7111111113J. Simecek—11891392
LAug 23 · 16:30M. Bereiter—7111091J. Simecek—11712113
LAug 15 · 20:00M. Bereiter—4980J. Simecek—1111113
WMay 24 · 15:30M. Bereiter—116117113J. Simecek—81141122
WMay 6 · 16:59M. Bereiter—1111113J. Simecek—6950
WMay 6 · 16:00M. Bereiter—111611113J. Simecek—1314591
M. Bereiter10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Bereiter1.807970T. Kypr1.901111113WSep 6 · 08:00T. Kypr1.737111081M. Bereiter2.0011912113WSep 6 · 07:00L. Martinak1.804980M. Bereiter1.911111113WSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172WSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113WSep 5 · 12:00M. Bereiter1.53148811133D. Heczko2.381211118112LSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:00M. Bereiter1.5315118113D. Langer2.381321161LSep 3 · 17:29T. Kypr1.731111113M. Bereiter2.009730LSep 3 · 16:00M. Bereiter2.00511481T. Kypr1.7311911113
J. Simecek10
WSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113LSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simecek2.3898110T. Kypr1.531111133WAug 28 · 12:59L. Martinak1.251181110102J. Simecek3.75511912123LAug 28 · 12:00J. Hutnik1.501111113J. Simecek2.506950LAug 28 · 11:00L. Martinak1.831112113J. Simecek1.8331030LAug 28 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67111061262T. Petrek2.109121110113LAug 28 · 08:59D. Unzeitig2.2511116113J. Simecek1.57811131LAug 28 · 08:30J. Simecek1.44611981D. Unzeitig2.6311811113LAug 28 · 07:00J. Simecek2.201510661J. Holubec1.61131211113
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