TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065473
Played Sep 3Finished
Vaclav Nohejl 2005
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611111119118––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Nohejl 2005 above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 68 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 59.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nohejl 2005 2–8 Sebastian Kasnik Vaclav Nohejl 2005 has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kasnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Kasnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nohejl 1721 vs Kasnik 1641
Nohejl
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nohejl 60% vs Kasnik 20%
Nohejl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nohejl 50% vs Kasnik 20%
Nohejl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nohejl -2 · Kasnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNohejl 1.91 / Kasnik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kasnik)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065473
Nohejl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Kasnik1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 115 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it91% 68 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it72% 92 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNohejl2wins
AwayKasnik8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNohejln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKasnik87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nohejl2Kasnik8n = 10Kasnik took 8 of 10
S2Nohejl4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S3Nohejl4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Nohejl3Kasnik5n = 8Kasnik took 5 of 8
S5Nohejl1Kasnik2n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNohejlKasnikN − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.0−4.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNohejlKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 305 vs 473 / 99154.4%47.7%166 / 305 vs 473 / 991Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikNohejl 1.91/Kasnik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nohejl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 23 · 16:30V. Nohejl—12911113S. Kasnik—1011841
WMar 15 · 17:59V. Nohejl—811117113S. Kasnik—11771192
LMar 15 · 17:00V. Nohejl—9880S. Kasnik—1111113
LDec 17 · 21:00V. Nohejl—711791S. Kasnik—11911113
LDec 17 · 15:00V. Nohejl—671191S. Kasnik—11117113
LDec 16 · 10:30V. Nohejl—891161S. Kasnik—11114113
LDec 16 · 08:30V. Nohejl—6111211152S. Kasnik—117148173
LDec 15 · 19:00V. Nohejl—11530S. Kasnik—1311113
LDec 13 · 16:00V. Nohejl—811881S. Kasnik—11811113
LJun 29 · 18:30V. Nohejl—11661192S. Kasnik—611118113
V. Nohejl10
WSep 5 · 09:30V. Nohejl1.7311117113V. Vejvoda2.00571171WSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:30O. Svacha3.0011871192V. Nohejl1.36611115113LSep 5 · 06:00V. Nohejl1.671111611132V. Vejvoda2.10136118153WSep 3 · 16:59V. Nohejl1.8311611113S. Kasnik1.83911981LSep 3 · 15:30J. Simecek1.8011612113V. Nohejl1.913111091LSep 3 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.6115661172A. Brazda2.201311112113WSep 1 · 21:30V. Nohejl1.401111113O. Svacha2.753790WSep 1 · 20:00V. Nohejl1.3391111113M. Sychra3.25119971WSep 1 · 19:30V. Kolar2.10117981V. Nohejl1.6771111113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 3 · 16:59V. Nohejl1.8311611113S. Kasnik1.83911981
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