TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059657
Played Sep 3Finished
Alexander Mikuska
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61111712141412811
Pavel Fojt
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Fojt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Mikuska above · Pavel Fojt below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 106 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Fojt at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Mikuska 2–7 Pavel Fojt Alexander Mikuska has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:24What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fojt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Fojt
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mikuska 1574 vs Fojt 1492
Mikuska
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mikuska 80% vs Fojt 60%
Mikuska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mikuska 70% vs Fojt 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mikuska +1 · Fojt +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fojt) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikuska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMikuska 2.10 / Fojt 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Fojt)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059657
Mikuska2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 19 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Fojt1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 85 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it80% 58 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMikuska2wins
AwayFojt7wins
4 of 9 to a deciderFojt leads 7–2, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMikuska50%2 of 4
AwayFojt100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mikuska4Fojt5n = 9Fojt took 5 of 9
S2Mikuska2Fojt7n = 9Fojt took 7 of 9
S3Mikuska5Fojt4n = 9Mikuska took 5 of 9
S4Mikuska1Fojt7n = 8Fojt took 7 of 8
S5Mikuska2Fojt2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMikuskaFojtM − FBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match39.142.4−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMikuskaFojtBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 240 vs 353 / 72352.5%48.8%126 / 240 vs 353 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FojtMikuska 2.10/Fojt 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Fojt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fojt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 14 · 22:30A. Mikuska—11114872P. Fojt—781111113
LApr 21 · 02:00A. Mikuska—11101061P. Fojt—51212113
LApr 7 · 03:30A. Mikuska—10611121P. Fojt—12118143
WApr 7 · 01:30A. Mikuska—1191111113P. Fojt—51151372
LFeb 11 · 01:00A. Mikuska—61111652P. Fojt—111811113
LFeb 8 · 01:00A. Mikuska—881191P. Fojt—11115113
LJan 25 · 01:30A. Mikuska—10411101P. Fojt—12116123
LSep 16 · 03:00A. Mikuska—53120P. Fojt—1111143
WSep 16 · 02:30A. Mikuska—129811123P. Fojt—1011119102
A. Mikuska10
WSep 3 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.95891111113K. Darin1.7511118642WSep 3 · 24:30K. Darin2.3831171192A. Mikuska1.53119114113LSep 2 · 23:30D. Parhomenko1.57881111113A. Mikuska2.2511117982WSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WAug 1 · 03:30T. Dousa1.5388111182A. Mikuska2.35111168113WAug 1 · 02:30A. Mikuska1.571111811113M. Placek2.2589111322LAug 1 · 01:30J. Dedek1.53111111113A. Mikuska2.38213141WAug 1 · 24:00A. Mikuska2.0011115113T. Dousa1.73851181WJul 31 · 23:00K. Darin2.0011911862A. Mikuska1.73411711113LJul 29 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.7211951182L. Babicka2.00311119113
P. Fojt10
LSep 6 · 03:29P. Fojt1.332690Y. Holovatiuk3.251111113WSep 6 · 01:30P. Fojt2.751111113V. Postelt1.402790LSep 6 · 24:30J. Prokupek1.5031111113P. Fojt2.50116461WSep 5 · 23:30Y. Holovatiuk3.2575111162P. Fojt1.33111195113WSep 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.831111113J. Plachy1.838780WSep 3 · 03:30D. Parhomenko2.0277120P. Fojt1.701111143LSep 3 · 02:30P. Fojt1.80111110472D. Parhomenko1.91891211113WSep 3 · 24:00P. Fojt1.61811711113J. Jnr2.2011811932WSep 2 · 23:00K. Darin2.636690P. Fojt1.441111113LAug 31 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801112113P. Fojt1.9181080
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