TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12317904
Played Jul 29Finished
Alexander Mikuska
Home
1.72
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113911511119811
Lukas Babicka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlexander Mikuska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Mikuska above · Lukas Babicka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Alexander Mikuska at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Mikuska 6–7 Lukas Babicka Alexander Mikuska has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Mikuska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mikuska 1567 vs Babicka 1460
Mikuska
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mikuska 80% vs Babicka 20%
Mikuska
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mikuska 50% vs Babicka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mikuska +2 · Babicka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mikuska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Babicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMikuska 1.72 / Babicka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mikuska)+0.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12317904
Mikuska1.72
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 40 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Babicka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 6 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMikuska5wins
AwayBabicka5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMikuska100%4 of 4
AwayBabicka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mikuska4Babicka6n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S2Mikuska4Babicka6n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S3Mikuska5Babicka5n = 10split evenly
S4Mikuska3Babicka1n = 4Mikuska took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMikuskaBabickaM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.033.3−1.3per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMikuskaBabickaBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 245 vs 109 / 22251%49.1%125 / 245 vs 109 / 222Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MikuskaMikuska 1.72/Babicka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mikuska · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Babicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 01:00A. Mikuska—111012123L. Babicka—41210101
WMar 28 · 24:00A. Mikuska—11116113L. Babicka—861181
LMar 24 · 02:30A. Mikuska—831111122L. Babicka—111124143
LFeb 13 · 01:00A. Mikuska—7630L. Babicka—1111113
WJan 27 · 03:00A. Mikuska—913112113L. Babicka—111171142
LAug 24 · 24:00A. Mikuska—5930L. Babicka—1111113
LJul 20 · 03:30A. Mikuska—6760L. Babicka—1111113
LJul 20 · 01:30A. Mikuska—7880L. Babicka—1111113
WJul 5 · 22:30A. Mikuska—1311113L. Babicka—11970
WJun 19 · 03:30A. Mikuska—1111133L. Babicka—35110
A. Mikuska10
WSep 3 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.95891111113K. Darin1.7511118642LSep 3 · 01:30A. Mikuska2.10611121482P. Fojt1.671171412113WSep 3 · 24:30K. Darin2.3831171192A. Mikuska1.53119114113LSep 2 · 23:30D. Parhomenko1.57881111113A. Mikuska2.2511117982WSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WAug 1 · 03:30T. Dousa1.5388111182A. Mikuska2.35111168113WAug 1 · 02:30A. Mikuska1.571111811113M. Placek2.2589111322LAug 1 · 01:30J. Dedek1.53111111113A. Mikuska2.38213141WAug 1 · 24:00A. Mikuska2.0011115113T. Dousa1.73851181WJul 31 · 23:00K. Darin2.0011911862A. Mikuska1.73411711113
L. Babicka10
WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112LAug 8 · 01:30L. Babicka1.734230M. Kolar2.001111113WAug 8 · 24:30F. Briza2.251271091L. Babicka1.57101112113LAug 7 · 23:30K. Darin1.6791111113L. Babicka2.07115581WAug 7 · 22:30L. Babicka1.671110811123A. Svoboda2.10712115102LJul 29 · 02:00L. Babicka2.2013750Y. Holovatiuk1.611511113LJul 29 · 01:00L. Babicka1.8341210101A. Mikuska1.83111012123WJul 29 · 24:00F. Briza2.001152121L. Babicka1.7331111143LJul 28 · 22:30K. Darin1.9111128113L. Babicka1.806101161LApr 3 · 03:30J. Prokupek—11119113L. Babicka—471181
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