TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12310149
Played Jul 29Finished
Frantisek Briza
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1135112111214––
Lukas Babicka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Babicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Briza above · Lukas Babicka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 69 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Lukas Babicka at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Briza 6–10 Lukas Babicka Frantisek Briza has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:06What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Babicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Babicka
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Briza 1465 vs Babicka 1481
Babicka
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Briza 40% vs Babicka 20%
Briza
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Briza 30% vs Babicka 50%
Babicka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Briza -2 · Babicka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Babicka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Babicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBriza 2.00 / Babicka 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Babicka)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12310149
Briza2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 85 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back23% 29 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 67
Babicka1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBriza4wins
AwayBabicka6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBabicka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBriza75%3 of 4
AwayBabicka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Briza4Babicka6n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S2Briza5Babicka5n = 10split evenly
S3Briza6Babicka4n = 10Briza took 6 of 10
S4Briza4Babicka3n = 7Briza took 4 of 7
S5Briza1Babicka3n = 4Babicka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrizaBabickaBriza − BabickaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.737.6+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrizaBabickaBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 848 vs 109 / 22246.1%49.1%391 / 848 vs 109 / 222Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BabickaBriza 2.00/Babicka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Babicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Babicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 2 · 18:00F. Briza—891181L. Babicka—11118113
WMar 28 · 03:30F. Briza—1511118113L. Babicka—17561152
WFeb 28 · 15:30F. Briza—1111113L. Babicka—8890
LFeb 13 · 04:30F. Briza—4790L. Babicka—1111113
WFeb 12 · 23:30F. Briza—11119113L. Babicka—381191
LNov 29 · 15:30F. Briza—129111172L. Babicka—14119793
LSep 10 · 01:30F. Briza—61161152L. Babicka—117117113
WAug 26 · 03:30F. Briza—1111113L. Babicka—4610
LAug 26 · 01:30F. Briza—1197101L. Babicka—61111123
LAug 24 · 03:00F. Briza—871111142L. Babicka—111179163
F. Briza10
WSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651WSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 15:00J. Novotny2.00411691F. Briza1.7311211113WSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:30F. Jungman1.571111113F. Briza2.257980WSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:00F. Briza2.006820F. Jungman1.731111113WSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 2 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.39971111113F. Briza2.5511112952WSep 2 · 16:30F. Briza2.2511111111113D. Horak1.5741381372
L. Babicka10
WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112LAug 8 · 01:30L. Babicka1.734230M. Kolar2.001111113WAug 8 · 24:30F. Briza2.251271091L. Babicka1.57101112113LAug 7 · 23:30K. Darin1.6791111113L. Babicka2.07115581WAug 7 · 22:30L. Babicka1.671110811123A. Svoboda2.10712115102WJul 29 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.7211951182L. Babicka2.00311119113LJul 29 · 02:00L. Babicka2.2013750Y. Holovatiuk1.611511113LJul 29 · 01:00L. Babicka1.8341210101A. Mikuska1.83111012123LJul 28 · 22:30K. Darin1.9111128113L. Babicka1.806101161LApr 3 · 03:30J. Prokupek—11119113L. Babicka—471181
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