TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12311273
Played Jul 29Finished
Lukas Babicka
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411121010121012––
Alexander Mikuska
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeAlexander Mikuska to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Babicka above · Alexander Mikuska below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Alexander Mikuska at 56.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Babicka 7–5 Alexander Mikuska Alexander Mikuska has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:16What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mikuska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Babicka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Babicka 1492 vs Mikuska 1540
Mikuska
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Babicka 40% vs Mikuska 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Babicka 50% vs Mikuska 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Babicka +1 · Mikuska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Babicka) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikuska form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBabicka 1.83 / Mikuska 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Babicka)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12311273
Babicka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mikuska1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBabicka5wins
AwayMikuska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBabicka83.3%5 of 6
AwayMikuska100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Babicka6Mikuska4n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S2Babicka6Mikuska4n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S3Babicka6Mikuska4n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S4Babicka1Mikuska3n = 4Mikuska took 3 of 4
S5Babicka1Mikuska2n = 3Mikuska took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBabickaMikuskaB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.732.2+2.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBabickaMikuskaBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 222 vs 124 / 24449.1%50.8%109 / 222 vs 124 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BabickaBabicka 1.83/Mikuska 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Babicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mikuska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 28 · 24:00L. Babicka—861181A. Mikuska—11116113
WMar 24 · 02:30L. Babicka—111124143A. Mikuska—831111122
WFeb 13 · 01:00L. Babicka—1111113A. Mikuska—7630
LJan 27 · 03:00L. Babicka—111171142A. Mikuska—913112113
WAug 24 · 24:00L. Babicka—1111113A. Mikuska—5930
WJul 20 · 03:30L. Babicka—1111113A. Mikuska—6760
WJul 20 · 01:30L. Babicka—1111113A. Mikuska—7880
LJul 5 · 22:30L. Babicka—11970A. Mikuska—1311113
LJun 19 · 03:30L. Babicka—35110A. Mikuska—1111133
LJun 18 · 22:30L. Babicka—811118122A. Mikuska—114711143
L. Babicka10
WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112LAug 8 · 01:30L. Babicka1.734230M. Kolar2.001111113WAug 8 · 24:30F. Briza2.251271091L. Babicka1.57101112113LAug 7 · 23:30K. Darin1.6791111113L. Babicka2.07115581WAug 7 · 22:30L. Babicka1.671110811123A. Svoboda2.10712115102WJul 29 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.7211951182L. Babicka2.00311119113LJul 29 · 02:00L. Babicka2.2013750Y. Holovatiuk1.611511113WJul 29 · 24:00F. Briza2.001152121L. Babicka1.7331111143LJul 28 · 22:30K. Darin1.9111128113L. Babicka1.806101161LApr 3 · 03:30J. Prokupek—11119113L. Babicka—471181
A. Mikuska10
WSep 3 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.95891111113K. Darin1.7511118642LSep 3 · 01:30A. Mikuska2.10611121482P. Fojt1.671171412113WSep 3 · 24:30K. Darin2.3831171192A. Mikuska1.53119114113LSep 2 · 23:30D. Parhomenko1.57881111113A. Mikuska2.2511117982WSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WAug 1 · 03:30T. Dousa1.5388111182A. Mikuska2.35111168113WAug 1 · 02:30A. Mikuska1.571111811113M. Placek2.2589111322LAug 1 · 01:30J. Dedek1.53111111113A. Mikuska2.38213141WAug 1 · 24:00A. Mikuska2.0011115113T. Dousa1.73851181LJul 29 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.7211951182L. Babicka2.00311119113
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