TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12311283
Played Jul 28Finished
Kyryl Darin
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210811116––
Lukas Babicka
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Babicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Lukas Babicka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Babicka at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 1–4 Lukas Babicka Kyryl Darin has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Babicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Babicka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1528 vs Babicka 1491
Darin
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 40% vs Babicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 60% vs Babicka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin -3 · Babicka -1
Darin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Darin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Babicka form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.91 / Babicka 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Darin)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12311283
Darin1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 209 of 467
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 260
Down 0–2, comes back10% 16 of 154
Babicka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDarin1wins
AwayBabicka4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderBabicka leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBabicka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin2Babicka3n = 5Babicka took 3 of 5
S2Darin4Babicka1n = 5Darin took 4 of 5
S3Darin1Babicka4n = 5Babicka took 4 of 5
S4Darin3Babicka2n = 5Darin took 3 of 5
S5Darin0Babicka3n = 3Babicka took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDarinBabickaD − BBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match44.043.2+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinBabickaBasisWin rate · lifetime749 / 1524 vs 109 / 22249.2%49.1%749 / 1524 vs 109 / 222Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.91/Babicka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LMar 25 · 04:00K. Darin—611911142L. Babicka—112117163
LMar 25 · 02:00K. Darin—61111862L. Babicka—116311113
LAug 25 · 23:00K. Darin—121081152L. Babicka—1012118113
LMay 31 · 19:00K. Darin—811771L. Babicka—11711113
WMay 17 · 23:00K. Darin—111214113L. Babicka—1101681
K. Darin10
WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991LSep 7 · 07:00K. Darin1.618690T. Andrle2.201111113LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:00K. Darin1.801111511102F. Jungman1.91281113123WSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472LSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123
L. Babicka10
WAug 8 · 02:58L. Babicka1.53138911133A. Svoboda2.381111115112LAug 8 · 01:30L. Babicka1.734230M. Kolar2.001111113WAug 8 · 24:30F. Briza2.251271091L. Babicka1.57101112113LAug 7 · 23:30K. Darin1.6791111113L. Babicka2.07115581WAug 7 · 22:30L. Babicka1.671110811123A. Svoboda2.10712115102WJul 29 · 03:00A. Mikuska1.7211951182L. Babicka2.00311119113LJul 29 · 02:00L. Babicka2.2013750Y. Holovatiuk1.611511113LJul 29 · 01:00L. Babicka1.8341210101A. Mikuska1.83111012123WJul 29 · 24:00F. Briza2.001152121L. Babicka1.7331111143LApr 3 · 03:30J. Prokupek—11119113L. Babicka—471181
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