TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13045730
Played Aug 30Finished
David Mutl
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
61112101191210––
Josef Pelikan
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:55 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Josef Pelikan below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held David Mutl at 57.8%
81 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 1–2 Josef Pelikan David Mutl has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pelikan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1194 vs Pelikan 1201
Pelikan
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 80% vs Pelikan 20%
Mutl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 70% vs Pelikan 20%
Mutl
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -1 · Pelikan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pelikan) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelikan form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 2.20 / Pelikan 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Pelikan)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13045730
Mutl2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 26 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Pelikan1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 43 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMutl1wins
AwayPelikan2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPelikan leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl2Pelikan1n = 3Mutl took 2 of 3
S2Mutl1Pelikan2n = 3Pelikan took 2 of 3
S3Mutl1Pelikan2n = 3Pelikan took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMutlPelikanM − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.339.7−3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlPelikanBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 104 vs 139 / 29351%47.4%53 / 104 vs 139 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.334.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelikanMutl 2.20/Pelikan 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Pelikan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 30 · 01:30D. Mutl—11891372J. Pelikan—9111111113
WJul 14 · 22:30D. Mutl—1113163J. Pelikan—811140
LJul 13 · 01:30D. Mutl—6870J. Pelikan—1111113
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113
J. Pelikan10
WSep 3 · 21:00J. Pelikan1.67411211113M. Lubas2.1011811452LSep 3 · 20:00J. Grohsgott2.001111113J. Pelikan1.732880WSep 3 · 19:00M. Lubas2.101011111282J. Pelikan1.67124314113LSep 3 · 18:30J. Pelikan2.207101171V. Sr1.6111128113LAug 30 · 02:30J. Pelikan1.619140L. Havrda2.201111113WAug 30 · 01:30D. Mutl2.0011891372J. Pelikan1.739111111113LAug 30 · 24:00J. Pelikan1.675860J. Grohsgott2.101111113WAug 29 · 23:00V. Stach1.8069131192J. Pelikan1.911111112113LJul 22 · 18:00P. Franc1.53111011113J. Pelikan2.38812691LJul 22 · 02:58J. Potensky1.6712117113J. Pelikan2.101051181
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