TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036334
Played Aug 29Finished
Evzen Rychlik
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114811211118116
Dalimil Machander
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeEvzen Rychlik to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvzen Rychlik above · Dalimil Machander below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 83 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Evzen Rychlik at 63.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Rychlik 14–6 Dalimil Machander Dalimil Machander has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rychlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Rychlik
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rychlik 1612 vs Machander 1579
Rychlik
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rychlik 100% vs Machander 20%
Rychlik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rychlik 80% vs Machander 40%
Rychlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rychlik +5 · Machander -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rychlik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Machander form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRychlik 1.53 / Machander 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rychlik)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036334
Rychlik1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 32 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Machander2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back36% 35 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back17% 9 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRychlik8wins
AwayMachander2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRychlik leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRychlik80%4 of 5
AwayMachander20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rychlik5Machander5n = 10split evenly
S2Rychlik4Machander6n = 10Machander took 6 of 10
S3Rychlik8Machander2n = 10Rychlik took 8 of 10
S4Rychlik7Machander1n = 8Rychlik took 7 of 8
S5Rychlik3Machander1n = 4Rychlik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRychlikMachanderR − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.833.6+7.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRychlikMachanderBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 250 vs 155 / 32754.8%47.4%137 / 250 vs 155 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RychlikRychlik 1.53/Machander 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Rychlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rychlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 26 · 06:30E. Rychlik—641191D. Machander—11117113
WJun 14 · 14:30E. Rychlik—11911113D. Machander—611891
WMay 17 · 06:30E. Rychlik—1211113D. Machander—10590
LMay 3 · 12:00E. Rychlik—117101182D. Machander—311128113
WApr 18 · 09:01E. Rychlik—71111113D. Machander—116781
WApr 18 · 08:00E. Rychlik—891111113D. Machander—11119352
WApr 12 · 13:28E. Rychlik—1101111113D. Machander—11127812
WApr 12 · 12:00E. Rychlik—71111113D. Machander—112781
WApr 11 · 16:00E. Rychlik—1211113D. Machander—10840
WApr 6 · 15:00E. Rychlik—117711113D. Machander—31111352
E. Rychlik10
WAug 30 · 17:01V. Zidek1.839850E. Rychlik1.831111113LAug 30 · 16:00E. Rychlik1.6171080D. Heczko2.201112113LAug 30 · 15:30V. Zidek2.001311113E. Rychlik1.7311850WAug 30 · 14:00E. Rychlik1.801211123R. Skacelik1.91108100WAug 29 · 17:30R. Skacelik1.8387100E. Rychlik1.831111123LAug 29 · 16:00E. Rychlik1.8361151182R. Skacelik1.83118116113WAug 29 · 15:30D. Langer2.10911111432E. Rychlik1.671141312113WAug 21 · 13:29E. Rychlik1.2871113113S. Byrtus3.501131171WAug 21 · 12:00S. Byrtus3.00119771E. Rychlik1.3671111113WAug 21 · 11:00D. Heczko2.101241181E. Rychlik1.6714119113
D. Machander10
LAug 31 · 09:28D. Machander1.8312971152D. Heczko1.831011119113LAug 31 · 08:30D. Langer1.73117711193D. Machander2.00911116172WAug 31 · 07:30D. Machander2.2511119113S. Byrtus1.57591121WAug 31 · 06:30D. Heczko1.736680D. Machander2.001111113LAug 30 · 21:29S. Byrtus1.57611117123D. Machander2.25114911102WAug 30 · 20:30D. Machander1.6111811113V. Zidek2.20911871WAug 30 · 19:00D. Machander1.911111113A. Walek1.807790LAug 30 · 18:00S. Byrtus1.671111113D. Machander2.108970LAug 30 · 13:14D. Langer1.98143115113D. Machander1.73121191142WAug 30 · 12:00D. Machander1.911111113D. Langer1.805560
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