TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13035783
Played Aug 29Finished
Radim Urbaniec
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811811––––
Ales Barton
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:01 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Urbaniec above · Ales Barton below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ales Barton at 66.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Radim Urbaniec 5–10 Ales Barton Radim Urbaniec has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Barton
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urbaniec 1738 vs Barton 1718
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urbaniec 20% vs Barton 40%
Barton
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urbaniec 40% vs Barton 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urbaniec +1 · Barton +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Barton) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrbaniec 2.63 / Barton 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Barton)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13035783
Urbaniec2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 193 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 145
Barton1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 85 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it84% 36 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it71% 57 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrbaniec3wins
AwayBarton7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBarton leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBarton75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urbaniec2Barton8n = 10Barton took 8 of 10
S2Urbaniec5Barton5n = 10split evenly
S3Urbaniec3Barton7n = 10Barton took 7 of 10
S4Urbaniec2Barton4n = 6Barton took 4 of 6
S5Urbaniec2Barton1n = 3Urbaniec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbaniecBartonU − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.339.5−7.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbaniecBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime597 / 1165 vs 226 / 42951.2%52.7%597 / 1165 vs 226 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartonUrbaniec 2.63/Barton 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 22:00R. Urbaniec—211551A. Barton—11811113
LJul 19 · 02:00R. Urbaniec—98110A. Barton—1111133
LJul 13 · 15:30R. Urbaniec—41111532A. Barton—119511113
WJul 8 · 17:00R. Urbaniec—912511123A. Barton—1110119102
WJul 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec—1141111113A. Barton—13116532
LJun 12 · 10:00R. Urbaniec—8470A. Barton—1111113
LMay 31 · 09:30R. Urbaniec—7960A. Barton—1111113
WMay 31 · 06:30R. Urbaniec—1211113A. Barton—10960
LMay 26 · 16:59R. Urbaniec—4111221A. Barton—11614113
LMay 26 · 14:00R. Urbaniec—1145171A. Barton—91111193
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 3 · 21:30R. Urbaniec2.00771171M. Kratochvil1.7311119113WSep 3 · 20:30V. Burdik1.91711251R. Urbaniec1.8011811113WSep 3 · 19:30R. Urbaniec2.6311911113M. Wollny1.44911781WSep 3 · 18:30M. Kratochvil1.50914881R. Urbaniec2.50111211113LSep 3 · 16:59R. Urbaniec2.635450L. Velebil1.441111113WSep 3 · 16:30L. Velebil1.33111158102R. Urbaniec3.25891111123LSep 3 · 15:30R. Urbaniec3.253660M. Grundel1.331111113LSep 3 · 14:30M. Skotnica1.40811911113R. Urbaniec2.7511411862WSep 2 · 21:00R. Urbaniec1.611111113R. Hudeczek2.205660WSep 2 · 20:00R. Urbaniec1.44711118113M. Chalupa2.6311971192
A. Barton10
LAug 30 · 08:59A. Barton1.8016780M. Huk1.911811113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Kanera1.731171110113A. Barton2.0061171292WAug 30 · 07:30A. Barton1.67111199163M. Huk2.10961111142LAug 30 · 06:30O. Kolisnyk1.57119511113A. Barton2.2561111562WAug 29 · 13:30A. Barton1.5761111113J. Ruzicka2.25118571WAug 29 · 12:00A. Barton2.1011121011123J. Kanera1.671310128102WAug 29 · 10:00A. Barton1.531113115113J. Ruzicka2.3881571152WAug 22 · 17:00O. Kolisnyk1.85711391A. Barton1.8011511113LAug 22 · 16:00A. Barton2.636560F. Wolf1.441111113LAug 22 · 15:30O. Kolisnyk1.50121111113A. Barton2.50148861
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