TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13035831
Played Aug 29Finished
Ales Barton
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113121010121181210
Jan Kanera
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJan Kanera to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Barton above · Jan Kanera below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 109 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jan Kanera at 55.2%
109 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 7–19 Jan Kanera Ales Barton has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:10What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kanera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-19 in 26
Kanera
Wrong
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1746 vs Kanera 1730
Barton
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 60% vs Kanera 20%
Barton
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 50% vs Kanera 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton +3 · Kanera -2
Barton
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kanera) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanera form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 2.10 / Kanera 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kanera)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13035831
Barton2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 23 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Kanera1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 62 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 39 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBarton2wins
AwayKanera8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKanera leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBarton33.3%2 of 6
AwayKanera100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton6Kanera4n = 10Barton took 6 of 10
S2Barton3Kanera7n = 10Kanera took 7 of 10
S3Barton3Kanera7n = 10Kanera took 7 of 10
S4Barton3Kanera5n = 8Kanera took 5 of 8
S5Barton1Kanera3n = 4Kanera took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartonKaneraB − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.6−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonKaneraBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 430 vs 275 / 58652.8%46.9%227 / 430 vs 275 / 586Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaneraBarton 2.10/Kanera 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Kanera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Barton won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 16:30A. Barton—1111133J. Kanera—94110
LJul 30 · 17:29A. Barton—83120J. Kanera—1111143
LJul 30 · 16:30A. Barton—117551J. Kanera—71111113
WJul 25 · 15:30A. Barton—118118113J. Kanera—71131152
LJul 12 · 07:00A. Barton—51451182J. Kanera—1112115113
LJul 5 · 08:30A. Barton—1111661J. Kanera—61311113
LJun 21 · 09:29A. Barton—8201091J. Kanera—111812113
LJun 21 · 08:30A. Barton—7101231J. Kanera—111210113
LJun 20 · 08:59A. Barton—116101172J. Kanera—711126113
LJun 20 · 07:30A. Barton—11861162J. Kanera—811114113
A. Barton10
LAug 30 · 08:59A. Barton1.8016780M. Huk1.911811113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Kanera1.731171110113A. Barton2.0061171292WAug 30 · 07:30A. Barton1.67111199163M. Huk2.10961111142LAug 30 · 06:30O. Kolisnyk1.57119511113A. Barton2.2561111562WAug 29 · 13:30A. Barton1.5761111113J. Ruzicka2.25118571WAug 29 · 11:30R. Urbaniec2.635880A. Barton1.441111113WAug 29 · 10:00A. Barton1.531113115113J. Ruzicka2.3881571152WAug 22 · 17:00O. Kolisnyk1.85711391A. Barton1.8011511113LAug 22 · 16:00A. Barton2.636560F. Wolf1.441111113LAug 22 · 15:30O. Kolisnyk1.50121111113A. Barton2.50148861
J. Kanera10
LSep 5 · 21:28M. Zahradka1.731111113J. Kanera2.006450WSep 5 · 20:30J. Kanera2.251111113O. Kolisnyk1.578760LSep 5 · 19:00J. Kanera2.104121151M. Zahradka1.671114793WSep 5 · 18:00J. Jr1.53691291J. Kanera2.38111110113LSep 3 · 17:28M. Jezek2.20111011113J. Kanera1.61612461WSep 3 · 16:00J. Kanera1.57118119123M. Jezek2.25611911102WSep 3 · 15:30V. Kolar2.00691381J. Kanera1.73111111113LSep 3 · 14:00J. Kanera1.5011611422O. Svacha2.50811411113LAug 30 · 09:30O. Kolisnyk1.531111711143J. Kanera2.38913115122WAug 30 · 08:30J. Kanera1.731171110113A. Barton2.0061171292
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