TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470443
Played Aug 22Finished
Ales Barton
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511611––––
Filip Wolf
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:45 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Wolf to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Barton above · Filip Wolf below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Filip Wolf at 65.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 2–4 Filip Wolf Ales Barton has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Wolf
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Wolf
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Barton 1706 vs Wolf 1850
Wolf
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 20% vs Wolf 80%
Wolf
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 60% vs Wolf 80%
Wolf
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton -2 · Wolf +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Wolf) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wolf form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 2.63 / Wolf 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Wolf)+5.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470443
Barton2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 24 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Wolf1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 42 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBarton2wins
AwayWolf4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderWolf leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartonn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayWolf80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Barton1Wolf5n = 6Wolf took 5 of 6
S2Barton1Wolf5n = 6Wolf took 5 of 6
S3Barton1Wolf5n = 6Wolf took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away467%
These 6 meetings
MetricBartonWolfB − WBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match29.534.7−5.2per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonWolfBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 436 vs 99 / 19252.8%51.6%230 / 436 vs 99 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WolfBarton 2.63/Wolf 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Wolf · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wolf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 22 · 16:00A. Barton—6560F. Wolf—1111113
LAug 19 · 15:30A. Barton—5690F. Wolf—1111113
WAug 17 · 17:30A. Barton—1011911113F. Wolf—12811442
WAug 17 · 15:30A. Barton—13911113F. Wolf—1111741
LJun 22 · 16:30A. Barton—71210F. Wolf—1114113
LMar 31 · 16:30A. Barton—10950F. Wolf—1211113
A. Barton10
LAug 30 · 08:59A. Barton1.8016780M. Huk1.911811113LAug 30 · 08:30J. Kanera1.731171110113A. Barton2.0061171292WAug 30 · 07:30A. Barton1.67111199163M. Huk2.10961111142LAug 30 · 06:30O. Kolisnyk1.57119511113A. Barton2.2561111562WAug 29 · 13:30A. Barton1.5761111113J. Ruzicka2.25118571WAug 29 · 12:00A. Barton2.1011121011123J. Kanera1.671310128102WAug 29 · 11:30R. Urbaniec2.635880A. Barton1.441111113WAug 29 · 10:00A. Barton1.531113115113J. Ruzicka2.3881571152WAug 22 · 17:00O. Kolisnyk1.85711391A. Barton1.8011511113LAug 22 · 15:30O. Kolisnyk1.50121111113A. Barton2.50148861
F. Wolf10
WSep 2 · 02:00F. Wolf1.5011116113M. Huk2.50681171LSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123LSep 2 · 24:00E. Mares1.671112113F. Wolf2.1081060LSep 1 · 22:30J. Kycelt1.9111113113F. Wolf1.80361191WSep 1 · 17:00L. Jindrak1.50113691F. Wolf2.5091111113LSep 1 · 16:00F. Wolf1.80511751T. Postelt1.9111411113WSep 1 · 15:30J. Kycelt1.91101112572F. Wolf1.801281011113LSep 1 · 14:00F. Wolf2.6311131151L. Jindrak1.4413159113LAug 26 · 13:30F. Wolf1.538511101J. Ruzicka2.2011116123WAug 26 · 12:00J. Jr2.38119881F. Wolf1.5361111113
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