TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013659
Played Aug 26Finished
Jan Mecl Jr
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911811811––
Filip Wolf
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Wolf to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Mecl Jr above · Filip Wolf below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Filip Wolf at 62.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Mecl Jr 2–5 Filip Wolf Jan Mecl Jr has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wolf
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Wolf
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1898 vs Wolf 1844
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Wolf 60%
Wolf
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Wolf 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Wolf +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wolf) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.38 / Wolf 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Wolf)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13013659
Jr2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 29 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Wolf1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 63 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 45 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayWolf5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderWolf leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%2 of 3
AwayWolf100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr3Wolf4n = 7Wolf took 4 of 7
S2Jr3Wolf4n = 7Wolf took 4 of 7
S3Jr3Wolf4n = 7Wolf took 4 of 7
S4Jr1Wolf3n = 4Wolf took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricJrWolfJ − WBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match33.735.6−1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrWolfBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 776 vs 102 / 19852.8%51.5%410 / 776 vs 102 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WolfJr 2.38/Wolf 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.2%
Wolf · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wolf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 26 · 03:13J. Jr—11127113F. Wolf—8101161
LJul 25 · 22:00J. Jr—1281161F. Wolf—14113113
LJun 24 · 16:00J. Jr—7890F. Wolf—1111113
LJun 22 · 13:30J. Jr—9470F. Wolf—1111113
WJun 22 · 10:00J. Jr—1111113F. Wolf—9640
LMar 31 · 17:30J. Jr—136115102F. Wolf—1111711123
LMar 31 · 15:30J. Jr—7118101F. Wolf—11411123
J. Jr10
WSep 5 · 20:58J. Jr1.5711119113O. Kolisnyk2.25691181WSep 5 · 20:00J. Jr1.611112157133M. Zahradka2.209141311112WSep 5 · 19:30O. Kolisnyk2.256490J. Jr1.571111113LSep 5 · 18:00J. Jr1.53691291J. Kanera2.38111110113LAug 27 · 16:58J. Jr1.6111581182J. Kanera2.20911114113WAug 27 · 16:30J. Kanera2.2010950J. Jr1.611211113LAug 27 · 15:30J. Jr2.38481191E. Mares1.5311117113LAug 27 · 14:30V. Koubek1.40111015113J. Jr2.754121371LAug 27 · 13:00J. Jr1.61114891M. Kratochvil2.2071111113LAug 27 · 12:00J. Jr2.203870E. Mares1.611111113
F. Wolf10
WSep 2 · 02:00F. Wolf1.5011116113M. Huk2.50681171LSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123LSep 2 · 24:00E. Mares1.671112113F. Wolf2.1081060LSep 1 · 22:30J. Kycelt1.9111113113F. Wolf1.80361191WSep 1 · 17:00L. Jindrak1.50113691F. Wolf2.5091111113LSep 1 · 16:00F. Wolf1.80511751T. Postelt1.9111411113WSep 1 · 15:30J. Kycelt1.91101112572F. Wolf1.801281011113LSep 1 · 14:00F. Wolf2.6311131151L. Jindrak1.4413159113LAug 26 · 13:30F. Wolf1.538511101J. Ruzicka2.2011116123WAug 26 · 11:00O. Kolisnyk2.259670F. Wolf1.571111113
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