TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13061405
Played Sep 2Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210116––––
Filip Wolf
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:55 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeErik Mares to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Filip Wolf below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 58 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Erik Mares at 55.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 6–5 Filip Wolf Filip Wolf has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:55What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mares
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1863 vs Wolf 1849
Mares
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Wolf 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Wolf 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares -2 · Wolf -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.67 / Wolf 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Mares)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13061405
Mares1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 138 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it86% 88 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it72% 111 of 155
Wolf2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 37 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayWolf5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares80%4 of 5
AwayWolf80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Wolf5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares8Wolf2n = 10Mares took 8 of 10
S3Mares7Wolf3n = 10Mares took 7 of 10
S4Mares0Wolf6n = 6Wolf took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresWolfM − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.835.1+4.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresWolfBasisWin rate · lifetime585 / 1166 vs 105 / 20550.2%51.2%585 / 1166 vs 105 / 205Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.67/Wolf 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 07:00E. Mares—891161F. Wolf—11115113
WAug 13 · 11:30E. Mares—1311133F. Wolf—118110
WAug 12 · 08:58E. Mares—714118113F. Wolf—111251192
LAug 12 · 06:00E. Mares—811951F. Wolf—11611113
WJul 15 · 23:30E. Mares—1112113F. Wolf—11040
LJul 14 · 18:30E. Mares—911591F. Wolf—11511113
LJun 22 · 11:30E. Mares—7112371F. Wolf—11825113
WMay 5 · 09:30E. Mares—1112113F. Wolf—21050
LMay 5 · 06:30E. Mares—1110127202F. Wolf—7121011223
WMay 4 · 10:00E. Mares—1111113F. Wolf—4230
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
F. Wolf10
WSep 2 · 02:00F. Wolf1.5011116113M. Huk2.50681171LSep 2 · 01:00F. Wolf2.00118813102L. Zeman1.739111111123LSep 1 · 22:30J. Kycelt1.9111113113F. Wolf1.80361191WSep 1 · 17:00L. Jindrak1.50113691F. Wolf2.5091111113LSep 1 · 16:00F. Wolf1.80511751T. Postelt1.9111411113WSep 1 · 15:30J. Kycelt1.91101112572F. Wolf1.801281011113LSep 1 · 14:00F. Wolf2.6311131151L. Jindrak1.4413159113LAug 26 · 13:30F. Wolf1.538511101J. Ruzicka2.2011116123WAug 26 · 12:00J. Jr2.38119881F. Wolf1.5361111113WAug 26 · 11:00O. Kolisnyk2.259670F. Wolf1.571111113
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