TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031508
Played Aug 28Finished
Vladimir Voronenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111816711118115
Vitalii S Marushchak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:58 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladimir Voronenko above · Vitalii S Marushchak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 103 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 65.7%
103 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Voronenko 29–44 Vitalii S Marushchak Vladimir Voronenko has won 29 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Marushchak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-44 in 73
Marushchak
Wrong
gap of 15 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Voronenko 1640 vs Marushchak 1745
Marushchak
Wrong
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Voronenko 80% vs Marushchak 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Voronenko 50% vs Marushchak 80%
Marushchak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Voronenko +3 · Marushchak +2
Voronenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marushchak) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marushchak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVoronenko 2.50 / Marushchak 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Marushchak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13031508
Voronenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 63 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Marushchak1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it82% 54 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVoronenko6wins
AwayMarushchak4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVoronenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVoronenko75%3 of 4
AwayMarushchak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Voronenko4Marushchak6n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S2Voronenko6Marushchak4n = 10Voronenko took 6 of 10
S3Voronenko5Marushchak5n = 10split evenly
S4Voronenko3Marushchak4n = 7Marushchak took 4 of 7
S5Voronenko4Marushchak2n = 6Voronenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVoronenkoMarushchakV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.840.0−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVoronenkoMarushchakBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 526 vs 296 / 62645.6%47.3%240 / 526 vs 296 / 626Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakVoronenko 2.50/Marushchak 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Voronenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 15:10V. Voronenko—3550V. Marushchak—1111113
LAug 21 · 16:40V. Voronenko—91111482V. Marushchak—116611113
WAug 17 · 15:10V. Voronenko—51111113V. Marushchak—118591
LAug 10 · 13:10V. Voronenko—11960V. Marushchak—1311113
WAug 7 · 15:10V. Voronenko—1210811113V. Marushchak—101211792
WAug 3 · 12:10V. Voronenko—911113113V. Marushchak—11581182
WJul 24 · 13:40V. Voronenko—611129113V. Marushchak—119101162
WJul 17 · 12:40V. Voronenko—1111123V. Marushchak—79100
LJul 13 · 12:40V. Voronenko—11119982V. Marushchak—281111113
WJul 6 · 10:40V. Voronenko—1131011153V. Marushchak—511125132
V. Voronenko10
LSep 4 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.2591111782A. Hrabskyi1.57116711113LSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 13:40V. Voronenko1.6111115113V. Savoliuk2.20751171LSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113LSep 4 · 10:40V. Voronenko3.001175101A. Yurkov1.3621111123LAug 31 · 16:40V. Voronenko2.25881161A. Hrabskyi1.5711119113LAug 31 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.2513411512V. Marushchak1.571111411113WAug 31 · 13:40V. Voronenko3.251511113A. Yurkov1.3313670WAug 31 · 12:10V. Voronenko2.1041112113A. Lievshin1.671171091WAug 31 · 10:40V. Voronenko1.731711113P. Plakushchyi2.0015940
V. Marushchak10
LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113WSep 2 · 08:20V. Marushchak2.001111811113O. Seliuchenko1.7313911682WAug 31 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.2513411512V. Marushchak1.571111411113
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