TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022557
Played Aug 27Finished
Petr Kolesnik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113711––––
Maksym Denysenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Kolesnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Kolesnik above · Maksym Denysenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Petr Kolesnik at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Petr Kolesnik 6–4 Maksym Denysenko Maksym Denysenko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Denysenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Kolesnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolesnik 1551 vs Denysenko 1637
Denysenko
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolesnik 60% vs Denysenko 40%
Kolesnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolesnik 50% vs Denysenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolesnik -2 · Denysenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Denysenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Denysenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolesnik 1.91 / Denysenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Denysenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022557
Kolesnik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Denysenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 22 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolesnik6wins
AwayDenysenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolesnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolesnik66.7%4 of 6
AwayDenysenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolesnik6Denysenko4n = 10Kolesnik took 6 of 10
S2Kolesnik5Denysenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolesnik3Denysenko7n = 10Denysenko took 7 of 10
S4Kolesnik4Denysenko3n = 7Kolesnik took 4 of 7
S5Kolesnik3Denysenko1n = 4Kolesnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolesnikDenysenkoK − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.4+2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolesnikDenysenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 325 vs 39 / 7756%50.7%182 / 325 vs 39 / 77Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DenysenkoKolesnik 1.91/Denysenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Denysenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Denysenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik—1111113M. Denysenko—5790
LAug 28 · 08:00P. Kolesnik—1110991M. Denysenko—81211113
LAug 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik—91170M. Denysenko—1113113
WAug 26 · 15:00P. Kolesnik—131411163M. Denysenko—15127141
WAug 21 · 05:00P. Kolesnik—11511113M. Denysenko—411491
LAug 20 · 16:30P. Kolesnik—11114972M. Denysenko—761111113
WAug 14 · 12:00P. Kolesnik—1111911113M. Denysenko—71311582
LAug 13 · 15:30P. Kolesnik—3980M. Denysenko—1111113
WJul 16 · 07:30P. Kolesnik—914511113M. Denysenko—111211742
WJul 15 · 16:30P. Kolesnik—1111712113M. Denysenko—48111452
P. Kolesnik10
LSep 2 · 10:52P. Kolesnik3.2512930S. Sideltsev1.331411113LSep 2 · 09:30S. Sideltsev2.00912811123P. Kolesnik1.731110114102WSep 2 · 08:00P. Kolesnik1.251111113Y. Zvolynskyi3.756840WSep 2 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.101111113N. Priadko1.678770WSep 2 · 05:00P. Kolesnik1.331111113M. Pohorilyi3.256950LSep 1 · 17:09P. Kolesnik1.28115881M. Pohorilyi3.5081111113LSep 1 · 16:00P. Kolesnik2.1014951372N. Priadko1.6712111111113LSep 1 · 15:00I. Dubinin3.4091411113P. Kolesnik1.301112891WSep 1 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi3.5057111182P. Kolesnik1.28111158113WSep 1 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev4.336930P. Kolesnik1.201111113
M. Denysenko10
LAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik2.201111113M. Denysenko1.615790WAug 28 · 09:30S. Sideltsev3.251011971M. Denysenko1.3312911113WAug 28 · 08:00M. Denysenko1.6181211113P. Kolesnik2.201110991LAug 28 · 06:30M. Denysenko1.80113881O. Torianyk1.9161111113WAug 28 · 05:00M. Denysenko1.5012117113M. Pohorilyi2.501081191WAug 27 · 09:58O. Torianyk1.678590M. Denysenko2.101111113WAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:30M. Denysenko1.83119581O. Torianyk1.8371111113WAug 27 · 05:30M. Denysenko1.53115114153M. Pohorilyi2.38811511132WAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko1.57111111113M. Pohorilyi2.25134661
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.