TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022472
Played Aug 27Finished
Maksym Denysenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1185111154111513
Mykola Pohorilyi
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeMaksym Denysenko to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Denysenko above · Mykola Pohorilyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 94 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Maksym Denysenko at 58.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Denysenko 2–3 Mykola Pohorilyi Maksym Denysenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Denysenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Denysenko 1591 vs Pohorilyi 1454
Denysenko
Correct
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Denysenko 40% vs Pohorilyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Denysenko 50% vs Pohorilyi 30%
Denysenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Denysenko +1 · Pohorilyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Denysenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Denysenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDenysenko 1.53 / Pohorilyi 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Denysenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13022472
Denysenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 16 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Pohorilyi2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog24% won 19 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back6% 3 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDenysenko2wins
AwayPohorilyi3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDenysenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPohorilyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Denysenko1Pohorilyi4n = 5Pohorilyi took 4 of 5
S2Denysenko3Pohorilyi2n = 5Denysenko took 3 of 5
S3Denysenko4Pohorilyi1n = 5Denysenko took 4 of 5
S4Denysenko3Pohorilyi2n = 5Denysenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDenysenkoPohorilyiD − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match44.239.4+4.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDenysenkoPohorilyiBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 67 vs 350 / 61047.8%57.4%32 / 67 vs 350 / 610Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DenysenkoDenysenko 1.53/Pohorilyi 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Denysenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Denysenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko—111111113M. Pohorilyi—134661
LAug 26 · 16:30M. Denysenko—12118101M. Pohorilyi—14811123
LAug 21 · 09:00M. Denysenko—98111192M. Pohorilyi—111149113
WAug 20 · 15:00M. Denysenko—11811113M. Pohorilyi—711541
LAug 13 · 13:30M. Denysenko—101112952M. Pohorilyi—1261011113
M. Denysenko10
LAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik2.201111113M. Denysenko1.615790WAug 28 · 09:30S. Sideltsev3.251011971M. Denysenko1.3312911113WAug 28 · 08:00M. Denysenko1.6181211113P. Kolesnik2.201110991LAug 28 · 06:30M. Denysenko1.80113881O. Torianyk1.9161111113WAug 28 · 05:00M. Denysenko1.5012117113M. Pohorilyi2.501081191WAug 27 · 09:58O. Torianyk1.678590M. Denysenko2.101111113WAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:30M. Denysenko1.83119581O. Torianyk1.8371111113WAug 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik1.9191170M. Denysenko1.801113113WAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko1.57111111113M. Pohorilyi2.25134661
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 08:30N. Priadko1.834370M. Pohorilyi1.831111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi2.7511118113O. Torianyk1.40941141LSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160LSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590WSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162WSep 4 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi3.0071111113O. Torianyk1.36117561LAug 28 · 05:00M. Denysenko1.5012117113M. Pohorilyi2.501081191LAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko1.57111111113M. Pohorilyi2.25134661
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