TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031473
Played Aug 28Finished
Maksym Denysenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210118711119––
Mykola Pohorilyi
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:41 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Denysenko to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Denysenko above · Mykola Pohorilyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maksym Denysenko at 61.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Denysenko 3–3 Mykola Pohorilyi Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Denysenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Denysenko 1642 vs Pohorilyi 1424
Denysenko
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Denysenko 80% vs Pohorilyi 20%
Denysenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Denysenko 60% vs Pohorilyi 30%
Denysenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Denysenko +2 · Pohorilyi -3
Pohorilyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Denysenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohorilyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDenysenko 1.50 / Pohorilyi 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Denysenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031473
Denysenko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 19 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Pohorilyi2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 20 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back6% 3 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDenysenko3wins
AwayPohorilyi3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDenysenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPohorilyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Denysenko2Pohorilyi4n = 6Pohorilyi took 4 of 6
S2Denysenko3Pohorilyi3n = 6split evenly
S3Denysenko5Pohorilyi1n = 6Denysenko took 5 of 6
S4Denysenko3Pohorilyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Denysenko1Pohorilyi2n = 3Pohorilyi took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricDenysenkoPohorilyiD − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match44.540.8+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDenysenkoPohorilyiBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 72 vs 350 / 61150%57.3%36 / 72 vs 350 / 611Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DenysenkoDenysenko 1.50/Pohorilyi 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Denysenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Denysenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 27 · 05:30M. Denysenko—115114153M. Pohorilyi—811511132
WAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko—111111113M. Pohorilyi—134661
LAug 26 · 16:30M. Denysenko—12118101M. Pohorilyi—14811123
LAug 21 · 09:00M. Denysenko—98111192M. Pohorilyi—111149113
WAug 20 · 15:00M. Denysenko—11811113M. Pohorilyi—711541
LAug 13 · 13:30M. Denysenko—101112952M. Pohorilyi—1261011113
M. Denysenko10
LAug 28 · 10:09P. Kolesnik2.201111113M. Denysenko1.615790WAug 28 · 09:30S. Sideltsev3.251011971M. Denysenko1.3312911113WAug 28 · 08:00M. Denysenko1.6181211113P. Kolesnik2.201110991LAug 28 · 06:30M. Denysenko1.80113881O. Torianyk1.9161111113WAug 27 · 09:58O. Torianyk1.678590M. Denysenko2.101111113WAug 27 · 08:30P. Shulhachyk3.255770M. Denysenko1.331111113LAug 27 · 07:30M. Denysenko1.83119581O. Torianyk1.8371111113WAug 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik1.9191170M. Denysenko1.801113113WAug 27 · 05:30M. Denysenko1.53115114153M. Pohorilyi2.38811511132WAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko1.57111111113M. Pohorilyi2.25134661
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 08:30N. Priadko1.834370M. Pohorilyi1.831111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi2.7511118113O. Torianyk1.40941141LSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160LSep 4 · 17:35D. Tsys1.221211113M. Pohorilyi4.0010590WSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162WSep 4 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi3.0071111113O. Torianyk1.36117561LAug 27 · 05:30M. Denysenko1.53115114153M. Pohorilyi2.38811511132LAug 26 · 17:43M. Denysenko1.57111111113M. Pohorilyi2.25134661
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