TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022543
Played Aug 27Finished
Maksym Deineha
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111198111210311
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Deineha above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 91 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Deineha 3–3 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Deineha 1630 vs Strutinskiy 1669
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Deineha 40% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Deineha 40% vs Strutinskiy 70%
Strutinskiy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Deineha +1 · Strutinskiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Deineha form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDeineha 1.91 / Strutinskiy 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022543
Deineha1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 13 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Strutinskiy1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 149 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it89% 80 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it75% 107 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDeineha3wins
AwayStrutinskiy3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDeinehan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrutinskiy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Deineha1Strutinskiy5n = 6Strutinskiy took 5 of 6
S2Deineha3Strutinskiy3n = 6split evenly
S3Deineha3Strutinskiy3n = 6split evenly
S4Deineha3Strutinskiy2n = 5Deineha took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDeinehaStrutinskiyD − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match35.238.3−3.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDeinehaStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 55 vs 390 / 76854.6%50.8%30 / 55 vs 390 / 768Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyDeineha 1.91/Strutinskiy 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 24 · 17:30M. Deineha—612771O. Strutinskiy—111011113
WAug 21 · 08:50M. Deineha—11714113O. Strutinskiy—7111291
WAug 20 · 15:30M. Deineha—31111113O. Strutinskiy—114781
LAug 14 · 19:00M. Deineha—3790O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 10 · 15:30M. Deineha—4111111113O. Strutinskiy—11138832
LJul 11 · 05:50M. Deineha—911671O. Strutinskiy—11911113
M. Deineha10
WSep 3 · 19:00M. Deineha1.83118117113Y. Opryshchenko1.8351161152WSep 3 · 17:00E. Hrytsenko2.105121131M. Deineha1.6711148113WSep 3 · 15:00V. Maksuta1.917111151M. Deineha1.8011138103WSep 3 · 14:00M. Deineha1.91861111113O. Strutinskiy1.8011117762WSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113WAug 27 · 19:00M. Deineha2.501212113A. Zozulia1.50101090LAug 27 · 17:00Y. Skorobahatyi1.911111137113M. Deineha1.8096151182LAug 27 · 15:00A. Derevianko1.83111011113M. Deineha1.83712991WAug 27 · 13:00V. Maksuta1.8381110101M. Deineha1.8311612123LAug 24 · 19:00Y. Opryshchenko1.9171411113M. Deineha1.801112971
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580LSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113LSep 4 · 05:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8391111113O. Strutinskiy1.83113481WSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 17:30Y. Opryshchenko1.80104111192O. Strutinskiy1.91121198113LSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172LSep 3 · 14:00M. Deineha1.91861111113O. Strutinskiy1.8011117762WSep 3 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.00148911102O. Strutinskiy1.731211117123
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