TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13020647
Played Aug 26Finished
Marcin Balcerzak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191181210––––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
61 points played in total.
Set by set
1191181210––––
H2H Marcin Balcerzak 62–100 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Marcin Balcerzak has won 62 of their 162 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-100 in 162
Poliniewicz
Wrong
gap of 38 in 162, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcerzak 1675 vs Poliniewicz 1756
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcerzak 60% vs Poliniewicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcerzak 80% vs Poliniewicz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcerzak -2 · Poliniewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Poliniewicz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcerzak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcerzak 2.20 / Poliniewicz 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13020647
Balcerzak2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog36% won 133 of 366
Down 0–1, comes back16% 33 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 106
Poliniewicz1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite72% won 349 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it95% 161 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it85% 260 of 305
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalcerzak3wins
AwayPoliniewicz7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcerzak60%3 of 5
AwayPoliniewicz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcerzak5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Balcerzak4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S3Balcerzak3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S4Balcerzak3Poliniewicz3n = 6split evenly
S5Balcerzak2Poliniewicz4n = 6Poliniewicz took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalcerzakPoliniewiczB − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.7−2.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcerzakPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime647 / 1566 vs 1270 / 214241.3%59.3%647 / 1566 vs 1270 / 2142Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczBalcerzak 2.20/Poliniewicz 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.6%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Balcerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 07:40M. Balcerzak—77110G. Poliniewicz—1111133
LAug 21 · 09:20M. Balcerzak—11711872G. Poliniewicz—611611113
WAug 21 · 05:35M. Balcerzak—1111133G. Poliniewicz—99110
WAug 17 · 11:20M. Balcerzak—111199113G. Poliniewicz—57111182
LAug 14 · 12:35M. Balcerzak—911311102G. Poliniewicz—113118123
WAug 12 · 11:20M. Balcerzak—1111611113G. Poliniewicz—68111372
LAug 7 · 09:20M. Balcerzak—129911102G. Poliniewicz—1011114123
LAug 5 · 14:35M. Balcerzak—6650G. Poliniewicz—1111113
LJul 2 · 10:30M. Balcerzak—58111272G. Poliniewicz—1111410113
LJul 2 · 07:40M. Balcerzak—213100G. Poliniewicz—1115123
M. Balcerzak10
LAug 26 · 12:35M. Balcerzak3.951171191K. Wloczko1.2013119113LAug 26 · 11:20M. Balcerzak1.77117121052K. Wisniewski1.959111012113WAug 26 · 10:05J. Kuzmicz1.30571212102M. Balcerzak3.1511111010123WAug 26 · 09:20M. Balcerzak2.951181110113A. Daniel1.3671191272WAug 26 · 08:30M. Balcerzak1.421211113M. Minda2.6010280WAug 26 · 06:50M. Balcerzak1.42111011113J. Zochniak2.65512461WAug 26 · 05:35M. Balcerzak1.3315119113J. Glanowski2.951391191WAug 26 · 04:00M. Balcerzak1.321112113B. Sulkowski3.0071080WAug 26 · 03:00M. Balcerzak1.301111113A. Lilien3.107570WAug 24 · 14:20P. Blocho1.80751151M. Balcerzak1.9111119113
G. Poliniewicz10
WSep 7 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz3.1011911123K. Wloczko1.307116101LSep 7 · 09:45K. Wisniewski2.331111313123G. Poliniewicz1.51891115102LSep 7 · 08:30S. Kolasa1.4011115113G. Poliniewicz2.75381141LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741WSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680
Upcoming Matches
M. Balcerzak
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G. Poliniewicz
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