TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13012366
Played Aug 26Finished
Marcin Balcerzak
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
3.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:17 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Balcerzak to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
117115117––––
H2H Marcin Balcerzak 31–8 Aleksander Lilien Aleksander Lilien has won 8 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (70%)
Balcerzak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-8 in 39
Balcerzak
Correct
gap of 23 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcerzak 1647 vs Lilien 1542
Balcerzak
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcerzak 80% vs Lilien 60%
Balcerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcerzak 50% vs Lilien 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcerzak +3 · Lilien +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Balcerzak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcerzak 1.30 / Lilien 3.10
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Balcerzak)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13012366
Balcerzak1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 178 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it98% 105 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it93% 136 of 146
Lilien3.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 87 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back18% 24 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalcerzak9wins
AwayLilien1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBalcerzak leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcerzak100%8 of 8
AwayLilienn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcerzak8Lilien2n = 10Balcerzak took 8 of 10
S2Balcerzak7Lilien3n = 10Balcerzak took 7 of 10
S3Balcerzak9Lilien1n = 10Balcerzak took 9 of 10
S4Balcerzak4Lilien1n = 5Balcerzak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalcerzakLilienB − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.730.6+9.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcerzakLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime640 / 1557 vs 846 / 156841.1%54%640 / 1557 vs 846 / 1568Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcerzakBalcerzak 1.30/Lilien 3.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.9%
Balcerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Balcerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 06:25M. Balcerzak—59112282A. Lilien—1111820113
WAug 14 · 08:30M. Balcerzak—1311113A. Lilien—11840
WAug 7 · 03:00M. Balcerzak—11511113A. Lilien—811761
WJun 2 · 03:00M. Balcerzak—1111113A. Lilien—3270
WJun 1 · 07:20M. Balcerzak—131278113A. Lilien—1110111192
WMay 29 · 10:35M. Balcerzak—1112113A. Lilien—31080
WMay 28 · 13:55M. Balcerzak—91111113A. Lilien—118961
WMay 27 · 09:00M. Balcerzak—111011113A. Lilien—512991
WMay 20 · 03:50M. Balcerzak—1111113A. Lilien—5780
WApr 20 · 05:20M. Balcerzak—1111113A. Lilien—4930
M. Balcerzak10
WAug 26 · 13:50M. Balcerzak2.201111123G. Poliniewicz1.5798100LAug 26 · 12:35M. Balcerzak3.951171191K. Wloczko1.2013119113LAug 26 · 11:20M. Balcerzak1.77117121052K. Wisniewski1.959111012113WAug 26 · 10:05J. Kuzmicz1.30571212102M. Balcerzak3.1511111010123WAug 26 · 09:20M. Balcerzak2.951181110113A. Daniel1.3671191272WAug 26 · 08:30M. Balcerzak1.421211113M. Minda2.6010280WAug 26 · 06:50M. Balcerzak1.42111011113J. Zochniak2.65512461WAug 26 · 05:35M. Balcerzak1.3315119113J. Glanowski2.951391191WAug 26 · 04:00M. Balcerzak1.321112113B. Sulkowski3.0071080WAug 24 · 14:20P. Blocho1.80751151M. Balcerzak1.9111119113
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Balcerzak
Nothing scheduled
A. Lilien1 of 1 neutral
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