TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015410
Played Aug 25Finished
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191012811116911
Michal Szostak
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Szostak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
1191012811116911
H2H Wiekiera Arkadiusz 17–20 Michal Szostak Wiekiera Arkadiusz has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:41What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Arkadiusz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Szostak
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Arkadiusz 1434 vs Szostak 1383
Arkadiusz
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Arkadiusz 60% vs Szostak 40%
Arkadiusz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Arkadiusz 70% vs Szostak 50%
Arkadiusz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Arkadiusz +2 · Szostak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Arkadiusz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsArkadiusz 1.75 / Szostak 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13015410
Arkadiusz1.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it71% 92 of 130
Szostak1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 28 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeArkadiusz6wins
AwaySzostak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderArkadiusz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeArkadiusz75%6 of 8
AwaySzostakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Arkadiusz8Szostak2n = 10Arkadiusz took 8 of 10
S2Arkadiusz6Szostak4n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S3Arkadiusz2Szostak8n = 10Szostak took 8 of 10
S4Arkadiusz6Szostak4n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricArkadiuszSzostakA − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.643.1+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricArkadiuszSzostakBasisWin rate · lifetime555 / 988 vs 132 / 26056.2%50.8%555 / 988 vs 132 / 260Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszArkadiusz 1.75/Szostak 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szostak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 20:30W. Arkadiusz—11179123M. Szostak—61511101
WAug 22 · 06:35W. Arkadiusz—11137133M. Szostak—71111111
WJun 15 · 18:30W. Arkadiusz—13163113M. Szostak—11141171
LJun 9 · 16:30W. Arkadiusz—91111101M. Szostak—11136123
LJun 6 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz—91112131M. Szostak—11614153
WJun 6 · 09:05W. Arkadiusz—1110811113M. Szostak—91211982
LJun 3 · 17:00W. Arkadiusz—117971M. Szostak—81111113
WMay 30 · 10:35W. Arkadiusz—111112113M. Szostak—841471
LMay 19 · 20:30W. Arkadiusz—1113139102M. Szostak—8151111123
WMay 9 · 09:35W. Arkadiusz—11115113M. Szostak—991191
W. Arkadiusz10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892LSep 2 · 22:40P. Odelski1.591111113W. Arkadiusz2.138890LSep 2 · 20:30P. Odelski1.6414711113W. Arkadiusz2.031211781WSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Komorowicz2.5512811982W. Arkadiusz1.421011911113WSep 2 · 15:30L. Buklat1.886811111W. Arkadiusz1.8211119133LSep 2 · 14:00P. Kamil1.9016911113W. Arkadiusz1.801411471LSep 1 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.8511119582P. Kamil1.85791111113WSep 1 · 20:30P. Kamil1.7358100W. Arkadiusz1.981111123
M. Szostak10
LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 30 · 10:05M. Szostak2.10115691L. Buklat1.6031111113WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061LAug 25 · 20:30M. Szostak1.9761511101W. Arkadiusz1.6911179123LAug 25 · 18:30P. Odelski1.807111011113M. Szostak1.8611512942WAug 25 · 17:30M. Szostak1.785111310113J. Komorowicz1.86117111272LAug 25 · 16:30K. Patryk1.461111113M. Szostak2.409690
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