TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13014785
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Szostak
Home
1.97
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61115171191012––
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Away
1.69
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Szostak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
61115171191012––
H2H Michal Szostak 20–16 Wiekiera Arkadiusz Wiekiera Arkadiusz has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:30What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Arkadiusz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-16 in 36
Szostak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostak 1394 vs Arkadiusz 1423
Arkadiusz
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostak 60% vs Arkadiusz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostak 50% vs Arkadiusz 70%
Arkadiusz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostak -1 · Arkadiusz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Arkadiusz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostak 1.97 / Arkadiusz 1.69
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13014785
Szostak1.97
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 28 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Arkadiusz1.69
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it71% 92 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostak5wins
AwayArkadiusz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayArkadiusz62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostak2Arkadiusz8n = 10Arkadiusz took 8 of 10
S2Szostak5Arkadiusz5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostak8Arkadiusz2n = 10Szostak took 8 of 10
S4Szostak5Arkadiusz5n = 10split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostakArkadiuszS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match43.343.4−0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostakArkadiuszBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 259 vs 554 / 98751%56.1%132 / 259 vs 554 / 987Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.541.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszSzostak 1.97/Arkadiusz 1.69
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 06:35M. Szostak—71111111W. Arkadiusz—11137133
LJun 15 · 18:30M. Szostak—11141171W. Arkadiusz—13163113
WJun 9 · 16:30M. Szostak—11136123W. Arkadiusz—91111101
WJun 6 · 14:05M. Szostak—11614153W. Arkadiusz—91112131
LJun 6 · 09:05M. Szostak—91211982W. Arkadiusz—1110811113
WJun 3 · 17:00M. Szostak—81111113W. Arkadiusz—117971
LMay 30 · 10:35M. Szostak—841471W. Arkadiusz—111112113
WMay 19 · 20:30M. Szostak—8151111123W. Arkadiusz—1113139102
LMay 9 · 09:35M. Szostak—991191W. Arkadiusz—11115113
WMay 6 · 18:30M. Szostak—111111113W. Arkadiusz—138971
M. Szostak10
LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 30 · 10:05M. Szostak2.10115691L. Buklat1.6031111113WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061WAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113LAug 25 · 18:30P. Odelski1.807111011113M. Szostak1.8611512942WAug 25 · 17:30M. Szostak1.785111310113J. Komorowicz1.86117111272LAug 25 · 16:30K. Patryk1.461111113M. Szostak2.409690
W. Arkadiusz10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892LSep 2 · 22:40P. Odelski1.591111113W. Arkadiusz2.138890LSep 2 · 20:30P. Odelski1.6414711113W. Arkadiusz2.031211781WSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Komorowicz2.5512811982W. Arkadiusz1.421011911113WSep 2 · 15:30L. Buklat1.886811111W. Arkadiusz1.8211119133WAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113
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