TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13014014
Played Aug 25Finished
Kiejda Patryk
Home
1.46
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116119––––
Michal Szostak
Away
2.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeKiejda Patryk to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
119116119––––
H2H Kiejda Patryk 3–2 Michal Szostak Michal Szostak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Patryk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patryk 1543 vs Szostak 1393
Patryk
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patryk 100% vs Szostak 80%
Patryk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patryk 90% vs Szostak 50%
Patryk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Patryk +5 · Szostak +2
Patryk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Patryk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatryk 1.46 / Szostak 2.40
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Patryk)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #13014014
Patryk1.46
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it80% 57 of 71
Szostak2.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 28 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 10 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePatryk3wins
AwaySzostak2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPatryk leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatrykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySzostak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patryk2Szostak3n = 5Szostak took 3 of 5
S2Patryk3Szostak2n = 5Patryk took 3 of 5
S3Patryk3Szostak2n = 5Patryk took 3 of 5
S4Patryk2Szostak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPatrykSzostakP − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.834.6+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatrykSzostakBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 272 vs 131 / 25657.4%51.2%156 / 272 vs 131 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PatrykPatryk 1.46/Szostak 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Patryk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Patryk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 22 · 12:05K. Patryk—11118113M. Szostak—931141
WAug 18 · 18:30K. Patryk—681111113M. Szostak—11116672
LJun 23 · 16:30K. Patryk—811951M. Szostak—11711113
LJun 15 · 16:30K. Patryk—7711101M. Szostak—11118123
WJun 9 · 17:30K. Patryk—1111113M. Szostak—9860
K. Patryk10
WSep 7 · 17:00K. Patryk1.5711118113L. Buklat2.25891171LSep 7 · 15:00K. Patryk1.50614551K. Kos2.30111211113WSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892WSep 2 · 22:10L. Buklat2.1599110K. Patryk1.611111133LSep 2 · 21:00L. Buklat2.1581311133K. Patryk1.5811116111LSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113LSep 2 · 17:30P. Odelski2.00891112113K. Patryk1.72111191032WSep 2 · 15:00P. Kamil2.20471231K. Patryk1.58111110113WSep 2 · 14:30J. Komorowicz2.9512116542K. Patryk1.361091111113LSep 1 · 22:30J. Komorowicz3.30811126133K. Patryk1.291191011112
M. Szostak10
LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 30 · 10:05M. Szostak2.10115691L. Buklat1.6031111113WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061WAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113LAug 25 · 20:30M. Szostak1.9761511101W. Arkadiusz1.6911179123LAug 25 · 18:30P. Odelski1.807111011113M. Szostak1.8611512942WAug 25 · 17:30M. Szostak1.785111310113J. Komorowicz1.86117111272
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