TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13046496
Played Aug 30Finished
Michal Szostak
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113511611911––
Lukasz Buklat
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Buklat to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
113511611911––
H2H Michal Szostak 12–19 Lukasz Buklat Michal Szostak has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Buklat
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Buklat
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostak 1420 vs Buklat 1420
Buklat
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostak 60% vs Buklat 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostak 60% vs Buklat 40%
Szostak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostak +3 · Buklat +1
Szostak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Buklat) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostak 2.10 / Buklat 1.60
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Buklat)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13046496
Szostak2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog50% won 29 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Buklat1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 65 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostak3wins
AwayBuklat7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBuklat leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBuklat87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostak2Buklat8n = 10Buklat took 8 of 10
S2Szostak5Buklat5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostak5Buklat5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostak3Buklat5n = 8Buklat took 5 of 8
S5Szostak1Buklat2n = 3Buklat took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostakBuklatS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.542.2−4.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostakBuklatBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 253 vs 260 / 45650.6%57%128 / 253 vs 260 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuklatSzostak 2.10/Buklat 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Buklat · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Buklat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 11 · 19:00M. Szostak—51112163L. Buklat—11710141
LApr 8 · 16:30M. Szostak—1171361L. Buklat—131111113
LApr 2 · 16:00M. Szostak—9113111L. Buklat—11211133
WMar 28 · 21:05M. Szostak—117118113L. Buklat—91161172
LDec 27 · 13:00M. Szostak—811741L. Buklat—11711113
LNov 6 · 18:05M. Szostak—41351182L. Buklat—1111118113
LOct 19 · 06:35M. Szostak—10880L. Buklat—1211113
LOct 18 · 11:00M. Szostak—71112782L. Buklat—1191011113
LAug 29 · 21:00M. Szostak—88100L. Buklat—1111123
WAug 27 · 20:25M. Szostak—13811123L. Buklat—11119101
M. Szostak10
LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061WAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113LAug 25 · 20:30M. Szostak1.9761511101W. Arkadiusz1.6911179123LAug 25 · 18:30P. Odelski1.807111011113M. Szostak1.8611512942WAug 25 · 17:30M. Szostak1.785111310113J. Komorowicz1.86117111272LAug 25 · 16:30K. Patryk1.461111113M. Szostak2.409690
L. Buklat10
LSep 7 · 17:00K. Patryk1.5711118113L. Buklat2.25891171LSep 7 · 16:00P. Odelski1.7311711113L. Buklat1.92911831LSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 2 · 22:10L. Buklat2.1599110K. Patryk1.611111133WSep 2 · 21:00L. Buklat2.1581311133K. Patryk1.5811116111WSep 2 · 19:00J. Komorowicz2.439111041L. Buklat1.4511912113WSep 2 · 17:00P. Kamil1.80119661L. Buklat1.9161111113LSep 2 · 16:00P. Odelski1.7711118143L. Buklat1.938611121LSep 2 · 15:30L. Buklat1.886811111W. Arkadiusz1.8211119133WAug 31 · 22:10K. Patryk1.47171280L. Buklat2.371914113
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