TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13014324
Played Aug 25Finished
Michal Szostak
Home
1.78
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51111713111012117
Jakub Komorowicz
Away
1.86
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Szostak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
51111713111012117
H2H Michal Szostak 12–14 Jakub Komorowicz Michal Szostak has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (51%)
Szostak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-14 in 26
Komorowicz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostak 1384 vs Komorowicz 1361
Szostak
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostak 60% vs Komorowicz 20%
Szostak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostak 50% vs Komorowicz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostak -1 · Komorowicz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komorowicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostak 1.78 / Komorowicz 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szostak)+2.9pp
TT Cup · #13014324
Szostak1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Komorowicz1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back23% 23 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostak5wins
AwayKomorowicz5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostak100%4 of 4
AwayKomorowicz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostak4Komorowicz6n = 10Komorowicz took 6 of 10
S2Szostak6Komorowicz4n = 10Szostak took 6 of 10
S3Szostak8Komorowicz2n = 10Szostak took 8 of 10
S4Szostak4Komorowicz4n = 8split evenly
S5Szostak1Komorowicz3n = 4Komorowicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostakKomorowiczS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.5+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostakKomorowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 257 vs 209 / 45651%45.8%131 / 257 vs 209 / 456Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostakSzostak 1.78/Komorowicz 1.86
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szostak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 10:05M. Szostak—1281113113J. Komorowicz—101171542
WAug 18 · 21:30M. Szostak—51111123J. Komorowicz—1175101
LAug 18 · 20:30M. Szostak—101211482J. Komorowicz—1210811113
LJun 23 · 20:30M. Szostak—961291J. Komorowicz—111110113
WJun 15 · 21:30M. Szostak—1111113J. Komorowicz—7890
LJun 15 · 17:30M. Szostak—91191142J. Komorowicz—114115113
WJun 9 · 20:30M. Szostak—1111113J. Komorowicz—9370
LJun 6 · 11:05M. Szostak—79111192J. Komorowicz—111198113
LJun 3 · 20:40M. Szostak—681181J. Komorowicz—11115113
WJun 3 · 19:30M. Szostak—111110113J. Komorowicz—981281
M. Szostak10
LAug 30 · 14:05W. Arkadiusz1.661110138113M. Szostak2.10712111192WAug 30 · 12:05K. Patryk1.6014781192M. Szostak2.201211119113LAug 30 · 11:05M. Szostak1.9598130W. Arkadiusz1.751111153LAug 30 · 10:05M. Szostak2.10115691L. Buklat1.6031111113WAug 30 · 08:35M. Szostak2.0011121111113P. Kamil1.7213146982WAug 30 · 06:35M. Szostak2.1081112113K. Kos1.651171061WAug 25 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.75111081192M. Szostak1.95912116113LAug 25 · 20:30M. Szostak1.9761511101W. Arkadiusz1.6911179123LAug 25 · 18:30P. Odelski1.807111011113M. Szostak1.8611512942LAug 25 · 16:30K. Patryk1.461111113M. Szostak2.409690
J. Komorowicz10
WSep 2 · 21:40P. Kamil1.6311811892J. Komorowicz2.15811811113LSep 2 · 20:00P. Kamil1.78111110113J. Komorowicz1.91671291LSep 2 · 19:00J. Komorowicz2.439111041L. Buklat1.4511912113LSep 2 · 18:00J. Komorowicz2.5512811982W. Arkadiusz1.421011911113LSep 2 · 16:30J. Komorowicz2.22811651P. Odelski1.5411811113LSep 2 · 14:30J. Komorowicz2.9512116542K. Patryk1.361091111113WSep 1 · 22:30J. Komorowicz3.30811126133K. Patryk1.291191011112WSep 1 · 21:00J. Komorowicz2.901111133K. Patryk1.3399110LSep 1 · 19:00K. Kos1.611111123J. Komorowicz2.0985100LSep 1 · 17:00F. Baranski2.11711116113J. Komorowicz1.6011991182
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