TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014333
Played Aug 25Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1187111171614––
Piotr Kaczynski
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timePiotr Kaczynski to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
1187111171614––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 7–17 Piotr Kaczynski Grzegorz Marud has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Kaczynski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Kaczynski
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1382 vs Kaczynski 1442
Kaczynski
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 40% vs Kaczynski 80%
Kaczynski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Kaczynski 80%
Kaczynski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Kaczynski +3
Kaczynski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kaczynski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczynski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.00 / Kaczynski 1.66
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kaczynski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13014333
Marud2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 128 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back24% 41 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 107
Kaczynski1.66
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 58 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud2wins
AwayKaczynski8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKaczynski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud50%2 of 4
AwayKaczynski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud4Kaczynski6n = 10Kaczynski took 6 of 10
S2Marud2Kaczynski8n = 10Kaczynski took 8 of 10
S3Marud3Kaczynski7n = 10Kaczynski took 7 of 10
S4Marud3Kaczynski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudKaczynskiM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.439.1−7.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudKaczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime637 / 1361 vs 201 / 37246.8%54%637 / 1361 vs 201 / 372Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaczynskiMarud 2.00/Kaczynski 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Kaczynski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 18:00G. Marud—11711163P. Kaczynski—8117141
LJul 28 · 15:10G. Marud—116111142P. Kaczynski—611139113
LJul 21 · 15:10G. Marud—119781P. Kaczynski—31111113
LJul 14 · 18:00G. Marud—7490P. Kaczynski—1111113
LJul 7 · 15:10G. Marud—71111722P. Kaczynski—119711113
WJun 23 · 18:00G. Marud—11611113P. Kaczynski—811791
LJun 16 · 15:10G. Marud—7660P. Kaczynski—1111113
LJun 9 · 15:10G. Marud—918691P. Kaczynski—111611113
LMay 26 · 15:10G. Marud—4590P. Kaczynski—1111113
LMay 19 · 18:00G. Marud—4470P. Kaczynski—1111113
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113
P. Kaczynski10
WSep 1 · 20:45P. Kaczynski1.36118811113R. Adach2.8051111742LSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113LSep 1 · 18:00P. Kaczynski2.156880W. Pytlas1.621111113WSep 1 · 16:25P. Kaczynski2.50111113113P. Zemla1.45461551WSep 1 · 15:10P. Kaczynski2.1051611123M. Tkocz1.6011149101LAug 25 · 20:20P. Kaczynski1.8511670P. Gumulinski1.851118113WAug 25 · 18:45T. Wrzalik2.45112791P. Kaczynski1.4771111113WAug 25 · 17:10P. Kaczynski1.95128118143M. Tkocz1.701011311122WAug 25 · 16:00P. Kaczynski1.66101111113R. Gajda2.05127381WAug 18 · 20:20S. Krupa1.50711471P. Kaczynski2.4011811113
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