TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014016
Played Aug 25Finished
Piotr Kaczynski
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12108111138111412
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Kaczynski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
12108111138111412
H2H Piotr Kaczynski 8–15 Marek Tkocz Piotr Kaczynski has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Tkocz
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczynski 1425 vs Tkocz 1439
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczynski 80% vs Tkocz 60%
Kaczynski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczynski 70% vs Tkocz 50%
Kaczynski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczynski +2 · Tkocz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczynski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczynski 1.95 / Tkocz 1.70
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Tkocz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13014016
Kaczynski1.95
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Tkocz1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 312 of 459
Up 2–0, closes it95% 178 of 187
Up 1–0, closes it83% 255 of 306
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczynski2wins
AwayTkocz8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczynski33.3%1 of 3
AwayTkocz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczynski3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Kaczynski3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S3Kaczynski3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S4Kaczynski3Tkocz4n = 7Tkocz took 4 of 7
S5Kaczynski2Tkocz3n = 5Tkocz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczynskiTkoczK − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.342.9−6.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczynskiTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 369 vs 763 / 113453.9%67.3%199 / 369 vs 763 / 1134Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczKaczynski 1.95/Tkocz 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 19:35P. Kaczynski—411101182M. Tkocz—119127113
LAug 11 · 16:50P. Kaczynski—8860M. Tkocz—1111113
LAug 4 · 20:00P. Kaczynski—913111162M. Tkocz—1111139113
WJun 23 · 20:20P. Kaczynski—911119113M. Tkocz—11841192
LJun 16 · 19:35P. Kaczynski—8101171M. Tkocz—11127113
LJun 9 · 20:20P. Kaczynski—11821272M. Tkocz—5111110113
LJun 2 · 17:10P. Kaczynski—13670M. Tkocz—1511113
LApr 7 · 17:10P. Kaczynski—4590M. Tkocz—1111113
WApr 2 · 18:25P. Kaczynski—114118113M. Tkocz—91171182
LDec 16 · 16:35P. Kaczynski—1110551M. Tkocz—91211113
P. Kaczynski10
WSep 1 · 20:45P. Kaczynski1.36118811113R. Adach2.8051111742LSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113LSep 1 · 18:00P. Kaczynski2.156880W. Pytlas1.621111113WSep 1 · 16:25P. Kaczynski2.50111113113P. Zemla1.45461551WSep 1 · 15:10P. Kaczynski2.1051611123M. Tkocz1.6011149101LAug 25 · 20:20P. Kaczynski1.8511670P. Gumulinski1.851118113WAug 25 · 18:45T. Wrzalik2.45112791P. Kaczynski1.4771111113LAug 25 · 18:00G. Marud2.0011711163P. Kaczynski1.668117141WAug 25 · 16:00P. Kaczynski1.66101111113R. Gajda2.05127381WAug 18 · 20:20S. Krupa1.50711471P. Kaczynski2.4011811113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LSep 1 · 15:10P. Kaczynski2.1051611123M. Tkocz1.6011149101
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