TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12456732
Played Aug 18Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118411711––
Piotr Kaczynski
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
711118411711––
H2H Sebastian Krupa 3–5 Piotr Kaczynski Sebastian Krupa has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Krupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kaczynski
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1315 vs Kaczynski 1405
Kaczynski
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 60% vs Kaczynski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 50% vs Kaczynski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +1 · Kaczynski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczynski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.50 / Kaczynski 2.40
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupa)-7.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #12456732
Krupa1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 94 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Kaczynski2.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back23% 10 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKrupa3wins
AwayKaczynski5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKaczynski leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa60%3 of 5
AwayKaczynski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa5Kaczynski3n = 8Krupa took 5 of 8
S2Krupa2Kaczynski6n = 8Kaczynski took 6 of 8
S3Krupa2Kaczynski6n = 8Kaczynski took 6 of 8
S4Krupa2Kaczynski4n = 6Kaczynski took 4 of 6
S5Krupa2Kaczynski1n = 3Krupa took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricKrupaKaczynskiKrupa − KaczynskiBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match37.641.2−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaKaczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 591 vs 197 / 36749.9%53.7%295 / 591 vs 197 / 367Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.50/Kaczynski 2.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 11 · 17:35S. Krupa—133511P. Kaczynski—111111113
LJul 21 · 16:50S. Krupa—661171P. Kaczynski—11117113
WJun 19 · 18:20S. Krupa—1171115113P. Kaczynski—81191792
LMay 10 · 16:25S. Krupa—11971182P. Kaczynski—511115113
LApr 21 · 16:00S. Krupa—910100P. Kaczynski—1112123
WDec 28 · 06:10S. Krupa—11139113P. Kaczynski—6111181
WSep 24 · 18:45S. Krupa—111189113P. Kaczynski—98111162
LSep 10 · 16:50S. Krupa—8890P. Kaczynski—1111113
S. Krupa10
LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540WSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 19:35W. Jozala2.90511771S. Krupa1.3511811113WSep 6 · 17:35G. Sawicki2.60531361S. Krupa1.41111111113WSep 6 · 16:50K. Juszczyk1.74118691S. Krupa1.9561111113WSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123
P. Kaczynski10
WSep 1 · 20:45P. Kaczynski1.36118811113R. Adach2.8051111742LSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113LSep 1 · 18:00P. Kaczynski2.156880W. Pytlas1.621111113WSep 1 · 16:25P. Kaczynski2.50111113113P. Zemla1.45461551WSep 1 · 15:10P. Kaczynski2.1051611123M. Tkocz1.6011149101LAug 25 · 20:20P. Kaczynski1.8511670P. Gumulinski1.851118113WAug 25 · 18:45T. Wrzalik2.45112791P. Kaczynski1.4771111113LAug 25 · 18:00G. Marud2.0011711163P. Kaczynski1.668117141WAug 25 · 17:10P. Kaczynski1.95128118143M. Tkocz1.701011311122WAug 25 · 16:00P. Kaczynski1.66101111113R. Gajda2.05127381
Upcoming Matches
S. Krupa
Nothing scheduled
P. Kaczynski3 of 3 neutral
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