TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13011564
Played Aug 26Finished
Adrian Walek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115119611611113
Petr Danko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:37 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timePetr Danko to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Walek above · Petr Danko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 84 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Petr Danko at 58.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Walek 3–3 Petr Danko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Danko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Walek 1549 vs Danko 1663
Danko
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Walek 20% vs Danko 80%
Danko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Walek 50% vs Danko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Walek -4 · Danko +1
Walek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Danko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWalek 2.00 / Danko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Danko)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13011564
Walek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 85 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back33% 30 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back19% 8 of 43
Danko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 24 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeWalek3wins
AwayDanko3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWalek33.3%1 of 3
AwayDanko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Walek3Danko3n = 6split evenly
S2Walek1Danko5n = 6Danko took 5 of 6
S3Walek5Danko1n = 6Walek took 5 of 6
S4Walek3Danko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricWalekDankoW − DBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.539.7−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWalekDankoBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 426 vs 102 / 20150.5%50.8%215 / 426 vs 102 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DankoWalek 2.00/Danko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Danko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 14 · 10:00A. Walek—881151P. Danko—11115113
WJul 16 · 11:30A. Walek—71111113P. Danko—117861
LJun 25 · 14:30A. Walek—115117112P. Danko—611811133
LMar 20 · 08:30A. Walek—116271P. Danko—61111113
WMar 18 · 11:30A. Walek—831111113P. Danko—11116662
WFeb 19 · 09:00A. Walek—111315113P. Danko—3151391
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek2.38118591J. Snr1.5391111113
P. Danko10
WSep 3 · 13:29P. Danko1.44118119113M. Heczko2.6391181192WSep 3 · 12:00P. Danko1.571111133M. Heczko2.2569110WSep 3 · 11:30A. Rinka1.9111119472P. Danko1.80281111113LSep 3 · 10:00P. Danko1.91128911112M. Volny1.801011112133LAug 26 · 12:58D. Langer1.831212113P. Danko1.83101050LAug 26 · 12:30P. Danko2.5051090S. Byrtus1.501112113WAug 26 · 11:00P. Danko2.0011117113D. Langer1.73791181WAug 21 · 09:30J. Schwan1.739119101P. Danko2.0011411123LAug 21 · 08:00P. Danko1.9111991462J. Schwan1.807111112113WAug 21 · 07:30O. Hradil1.917720P. Danko1.801111113
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