TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12469382
Played Aug 21Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111149111012––
Petr Danko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Schwan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Petr Danko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 7–2 Petr Danko Petr Danko has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Schwan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Schwan
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1551 vs Danko 1655
Danko
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 80% vs Danko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 50% vs Danko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan +3 · Danko -1
Schwan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Schwan) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.73 / Danko 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Schwan)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12469382
Schwan1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Danko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 33 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back38% 19 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSchwan7wins
AwayDanko2wins
6 of 9 to a deciderSchwan leads 7–2, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan75%3 of 4
AwayDanko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan4Danko5n = 9Danko took 5 of 9
S2Schwan6Danko3n = 9Schwan took 6 of 9
S3Schwan7Danko2n = 9Schwan took 7 of 9
S4Schwan1Danko6n = 7Danko took 6 of 7
S5Schwan5Danko1n = 6Schwan took 5 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home556%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSchwanDankoS − DBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match41.640.6+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanDankoBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 249 vs 101 / 20047%50.5%117 / 249 vs 101 / 200Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanSchwan 1.73/Danko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Danko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 21 · 08:00J. Schwan—7111112113P. Danko—11991462
WMay 27 · 07:30J. Schwan—611118113P. Danko—11991172
LMar 24 · 16:00J. Schwan—11911672P. Danko—911811113
WMar 23 · 09:30J. Schwan—141139113P. Danko—127111172
WMar 19 · 07:30J. Schwan—411117133P. Danko—116211112
LMar 10 · 11:30J. Schwan—6550P. Danko—1111113
WMar 4 · 09:30J. Schwan—71112113P. Danko—1161071
WDec 19 · 10:06J. Schwan—117117113P. Danko—91141182
WDec 19 · 07:30J. Schwan—1111113P. Danko—8660
J. Schwan10
LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691LAug 25 · 21:28J. Schwan1.50118571D. Langer2.5051111113WAug 25 · 20:30J. Schwan2.00411126113R. Vavrecka1.73115101162
P. Danko10
WSep 3 · 13:29P. Danko1.44118119113M. Heczko2.6391181192WSep 3 · 12:00P. Danko1.571111133M. Heczko2.2569110WSep 3 · 11:30A. Rinka1.9111119472P. Danko1.80281111113LSep 3 · 10:00P. Danko1.91128911112M. Volny1.801011112133LAug 26 · 12:58D. Langer1.831212113P. Danko1.83101050LAug 26 · 12:30P. Danko2.5051090S. Byrtus1.501112113WAug 26 · 11:00P. Danko2.0011117113D. Langer1.73791181LAug 26 · 10:00A. Walek2.00111166113P. Danko1.7359111132LAug 21 · 08:00P. Danko1.9111991462J. Schwan1.807111112113WAug 21 · 07:30O. Hradil1.917720P. Danko1.801111113
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