TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12465654
Played Aug 21Finished
Petr Danko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179119111412611
Jaroslav Schwan
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Danko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Danko above · Jaroslav Schwan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 101 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr Danko at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Petr Danko 2–7 Jaroslav Schwan Petr Danko has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:57What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schwan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Schwan
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danko 1655 vs Schwan 1551
Danko
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danko 100% vs Schwan 60%
Danko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danko 60% vs Schwan 40%
Danko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danko +5 · Schwan +2
Danko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Schwan) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanko 1.91 / Schwan 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Schwan)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12465654
Danko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 33 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back38% 19 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Schwan1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 50 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeDanko2wins
AwaySchwan7wins
6 of 9 to a deciderSchwan leads 7–2, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanko20%1 of 5
AwaySchwan75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danko5Schwan4n = 9Danko took 5 of 9
S2Danko3Schwan6n = 9Schwan took 6 of 9
S3Danko2Schwan7n = 9Schwan took 7 of 9
S4Danko6Schwan1n = 7Danko took 6 of 7
S5Danko1Schwan5n = 6Schwan took 5 of 6
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away556%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricDankoSchwanD − SBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match40.641.6−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDankoSchwanBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 200 vs 117 / 24950.5%47%101 / 200 vs 117 / 249Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchwanDanko 1.91/Schwan 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Schwan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 21 · 08:00P. Danko—11991462J. Schwan—7111112113
LMay 27 · 07:30P. Danko—11991172J. Schwan—611118113
WMar 24 · 16:00P. Danko—911811113J. Schwan—11911672
LMar 23 · 09:30P. Danko—127111172J. Schwan—141139113
LMar 19 · 07:30P. Danko—116211112J. Schwan—411117133
WMar 10 · 11:30P. Danko—1111113J. Schwan—6550
LMar 4 · 09:30P. Danko—1161071J. Schwan—71112113
LDec 19 · 10:06P. Danko—91141182J. Schwan—117117113
LDec 19 · 07:30P. Danko—8660J. Schwan—1111113
P. Danko10
WSep 3 · 13:29P. Danko1.44118119113M. Heczko2.6391181192WSep 3 · 12:00P. Danko1.571111133M. Heczko2.2569110WSep 3 · 11:30A. Rinka1.9111119472P. Danko1.80281111113LSep 3 · 10:00P. Danko1.91128911112M. Volny1.801011112133LAug 26 · 12:58D. Langer1.831212113P. Danko1.83101050LAug 26 · 12:30P. Danko2.5051090S. Byrtus1.501112113WAug 26 · 11:00P. Danko2.0011117113D. Langer1.73791181LAug 26 · 10:00A. Walek2.00111166113P. Danko1.7359111132WAug 21 · 09:30J. Schwan1.739119101P. Danko2.0011411123WAug 21 · 07:30O. Hradil1.917720P. Danko1.801111113
J. Schwan10
LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691LAug 25 · 21:28J. Schwan1.50118571D. Langer2.5051111113LAug 21 · 09:30J. Schwan1.739119101P. Danko2.0011411123
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