TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459891
Played Aug 19Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191177111210––
Patrik Klusacek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Patrik Klusacek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 23–10 Patrik Klusacek Patrik Klusacek has won 10 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Klusacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-10 in 33
Chmelicek
Correct
gap of 13 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1331 vs Klusacek 1308
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 100% vs Klusacek 80%
Chmelicek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 60% vs Klusacek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +5 · Klusacek +2
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Klusacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.83 / Klusacek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12459891
Chmelicek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Klusacek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek5wins
AwayKlusacek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek55.6%5 of 9
AwayKlusacekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek9Klusacek1n = 10Chmelicek took 9 of 10
S2Chmelicek2Klusacek8n = 10Klusacek took 8 of 10
S3Chmelicek4Klusacek6n = 10Klusacek took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek4Klusacek4n = 8split evenly
S5Chmelicek2Klusacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekKlusacekC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.839.8−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekKlusacekBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 419 vs 150 / 34546.3%43.5%194 / 419 vs 150 / 345Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.83/Klusacek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—11117123P. Klusacek—9711101
LAug 14 · 21:05M. Chmelicek—129161P. Klusacek—101111113
WAug 14 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—119116113P. Klusacek—81151162
LAug 10 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—11651162P. Klusacek—811119113
WAug 3 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—118116123P. Klusacek—411811102
WAug 2 · 10:35M. Chmelicek—1111113P. Klusacek—8860
LJul 30 · 21:08M. Chmelicek—10640P. Klusacek—1211113
LJul 30 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—114591P. Klusacek—61111113
WJul 29 · 21:13M. Chmelicek—11711133P. Klusacek—7119111
LJul 29 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—11451192P. Klusacek—911118113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
P. Klusacek10
WAug 19 · 21:40M. Chmelicek1.57121391182P. Klusacek2.251015118113WAug 19 · 19:35R. Hruby2.25131091192P. Klusacek1.571112117113WAug 19 · 18:35P. Klusacek1.401111113M. Cvecek2.755980LAug 17 · 21:45P. Klusacek2.507970J. Kabelka1.501111113WAug 17 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.3695110P. Klusacek3.001111133WAug 17 · 19:35R. Hruby2.50612671P. Klusacek1.50111011113WAug 17 · 18:35P. Klusacek1.571211113M. Cvecek2.2510850LAug 15 · 21:33J. Horky1.401111113P. Klusacek2.756170LAug 15 · 20:05J. Horky1.4012911113P. Klusacek2.751011671WAug 15 · 19:35R. Hruby2.2017101141P. Klusacek1.61151213113
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