TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12455413
Played Aug 18Finished
Ales Krcil
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614119117––––
Josef Vintr
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Krcil above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 68 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Ales Krcil at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ales Krcil 1–0 Josef Vintr Josef Vintr has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1642 vs Vintr 1529
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 100% vs Vintr 40%
Krcil
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 80% vs Vintr 60%
Krcil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +5 · Vintr -2
Krcil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.73 / Vintr 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krcil)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12455413
Krcil1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 27 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Vintr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog55% won 11 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back36% 4 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKrcil1wins
AwayVintr0wins
Krcil leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKrcilVintrK − VBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.030.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime37 / 58 vs 33 / 5863.8%56.9%37 / 58 vs 33 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.641.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.73/Vintr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 18 · 15:50A. Krcil—1611113J. Vintr—14970
A. Krcil10
LAug 18 · 18:00V. Koutnik1.83591111113A. Krcil1.8311115642LAug 18 · 16:50V. Koutnik1.911111117113A. Krcil1.8013881192WAug 18 · 14:20S. Matousch3.4074110A. Krcil1.301111133WJul 28 · 21:54A. Krcil1.4471111113Z. Vyskocil2.63118861WJul 28 · 20:50M. Boltik1.73511991A. Krcil2.0011911113WJul 28 · 19:50A. Krcil1.831111117113T. Barsa1.8356131172WJul 28 · 18:20Z. Vyskocil2.505930A. Krcil1.501111113WJul 20 · 17:23A. Krcil1.3012113123T. Rein3.4010911101LJul 20 · 16:20A. Krcil1.57671111132T. Jr2.25111167153WJul 20 · 15:20A. Krcil1.5361111113T. Rein2.38115761
J. Vintr10
LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113WAug 26 · 16:20J. Vintr2.001111113M. Cesak1.736660
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