TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12455438
Played Aug 18Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113118118711119
Ales Krcil
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Ales Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ales Krcil at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krcil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1570 vs Krcil 1642
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 80% vs Krcil 100%
Krcil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Krcil 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +3 · Krcil +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.91 / Krcil 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krcil)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12455438
Koutnik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back32% 21 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Krcil1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 27 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 321 vs 37 / 5844.2%63.8%142 / 321 vs 37 / 58Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKoutnik 1.91/Krcil 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koutnik won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252
A. Krcil10
LAug 18 · 18:00V. Koutnik1.83591111113A. Krcil1.8311115642WAug 18 · 15:50A. Krcil1.731611113J. Vintr2.0014970WAug 18 · 14:20S. Matousch3.4074110A. Krcil1.301111133WJul 28 · 21:54A. Krcil1.4471111113Z. Vyskocil2.63118861WJul 28 · 20:50M. Boltik1.73511991A. Krcil2.0011911113WJul 28 · 19:50A. Krcil1.831111117113T. Barsa1.8356131172WJul 28 · 18:20Z. Vyskocil2.505930A. Krcil1.501111113WJul 20 · 17:23A. Krcil1.3012113123T. Rein3.4010911101LJul 20 · 16:20A. Krcil1.57671111132T. Jr2.25111167153WJul 20 · 15:20A. Krcil1.5361111113T. Rein2.38115761
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