TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12269427
Played Jul 20Finished
Ales Krcil
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6117111161171315
Tomas Cerveny Jr
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAles Krcil to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Krcil above · Tomas Cerveny Jr below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 98 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Ales Krcil at 58.9%
98 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krcil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1568 vs Jr 1444
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 60% vs Jr 20%
Krcil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 50% vs Jr 30%
Krcil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +1 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.67 / Jr 2.10
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Krcil)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12269427
Krcil1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite73% won 22 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Jr2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 24 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back5% 2 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilJrBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 50 vs 331 / 60560%54.7%30 / 50 vs 331 / 605Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.67/Jr 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
A. Krcil10
LAug 18 · 18:00V. Koutnik1.83591111113A. Krcil1.8311115642LAug 18 · 16:50V. Koutnik1.911111117113A. Krcil1.8013881192WAug 18 · 15:50A. Krcil1.731611113J. Vintr2.0014970WAug 18 · 14:20S. Matousch3.4074110A. Krcil1.301111133WJul 28 · 21:54A. Krcil1.4471111113Z. Vyskocil2.63118861WJul 28 · 20:50M. Boltik1.73511991A. Krcil2.0011911113WJul 28 · 19:50A. Krcil1.831111117113T. Barsa1.8356131172WJul 28 · 18:20Z. Vyskocil2.505930A. Krcil1.501111113WJul 20 · 17:23A. Krcil1.3012113123T. Rein3.4010911101WJul 20 · 15:20A. Krcil1.5361111113T. Rein2.38115761
T. Jr10
WSep 6 · 22:04Z. Vyskocil1.6711111010112T. Jr2.10371212133LSep 6 · 20:55T. Jr1.73116771Z. Vyskocil2.0081111113LSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113LSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530WSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143WSep 3 · 11:50T. Jr1.36121411113P. Cibik3.001016881WSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113WAug 30 · 21:55Z. Vyskocil1.807270T. Jr1.901111113LAug 30 · 20:50T. Jr1.8012514101Z. Vyskocil1.91141112123
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