TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12455433
Played Aug 18Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7114111113––––
Ales Krcil
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 79.3% is still 79.3%
Graded at full timeAles Krcil to win
79.3%
79.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Ales Krcil below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 57 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Ales Krcil at 79.3%
57 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 0–3 Ales Krcil Simon Matousch has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:33What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krcil
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1338 vs Krcil 1619
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 281 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 20% vs Krcil 100%
Krcil
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 40% vs Krcil 70%
Krcil
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch +1 · Krcil +5
Krcil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 3.40 / Krcil 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Krcil)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12455433
Matousch3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 15 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Krcil1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 27 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMatousch0wins
AwayKrcil3wins
Krcil leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch1Krcil2n = 3Krcil took 2 of 3
S2Matousch0Krcil3n = 3Krcil took 3 of 3
S3Matousch1Krcil2n = 3Krcil took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMatouschKrcilM − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match27.338.3−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 324 vs 36 / 5747.8%63.2%155 / 324 vs 36 / 57Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilMatousch 3.40/Krcil 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 18 · 14:20S. Matousch—74110A. Krcil—1111133
LJun 23 · 16:50S. Matousch—115471A. Krcil—51111113
LJun 8 · 15:50S. Matousch—1071151A. Krcil—12118113
S. Matousch10
LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102LSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:50S. Matousch1.677611131J. Rolik2.1011119153LSep 1 · 10:20P. Cibik1.8351111113S. Matousch1.83118791WAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich1.67111011772S. Matousch2.07512911113LAug 31 · 20:20S. Matousch1.6712991182M. Dlask2.101011113113
A. Krcil10
LAug 18 · 18:00V. Koutnik1.83591111113A. Krcil1.8311115642LAug 18 · 16:50V. Koutnik1.911111117113A. Krcil1.8013881192WAug 18 · 15:50A. Krcil1.731611113J. Vintr2.0014970WJul 28 · 21:54A. Krcil1.4471111113Z. Vyskocil2.63118861WJul 28 · 20:50M. Boltik1.73511991A. Krcil2.0011911113WJul 28 · 19:50A. Krcil1.831111117113T. Barsa1.8356131172WJul 28 · 18:20Z. Vyskocil2.505930A. Krcil1.501111113WJul 20 · 17:23A. Krcil1.3012113123T. Rein3.4010911101LJul 20 · 16:20A. Krcil1.57671111132T. Jr2.25111167153WJul 20 · 15:20A. Krcil1.5361111113T. Rein2.38115761
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